The Sullivan Doctrine
By Carlo J.V. Caro
April 08, 2024
In this photo released Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021, by the Iranian army, warships participate in a joint naval exercise of the Russian navy, the Iranian navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's navy in the Indian Ocean. (Iranian Army via AP)
By prioritizing crisis management in response to escalating tensions, President Biden and his national security team risk inadvertently paving the way for a war between Iran and Israel. The Sullivan doctrine, which appears to avoid taking decisive measures against Iranian aggression, heightens the possibility of a war that could lead to the first-ever use of a nuclear strike in the Middle East.
Historically, Israel has been proactive in preventing its adversaries from acquiring nuclear capabilities, as evidenced by military strikes in Iraq in 1981 (Operation Opera) and Syria in 2007 (Operation Orchard). However, the challenge posed by Iran is notably different in terms of geography and strategy, complicating the application of the Begin Doctrine—Israel's preemptive strategy to neutralize existential threats.
Iran's vast geographic expanse, covering approximately 648,195 square miles, significantly surpasses both Iraq (169,235 square miles) and Syria (71,498 square miles). This extensive area allows for the dispersion of nuclear facilities across a broad territory, thereby complicating any potential preemptive strikes. This challenge is intensified by Iran's daunting terrain, which features significant mountain ranges such as the Elburz, Central and Eastern ranges, and the Zagros Mountains. Many of Iran's nuclear facilities have been strategically placed to exploit these rugged landscapes for natural fortification. For instance, the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant is notably entrenched within a mountain near Qom, rendering it a formidable target for aerial attacks. Likewise, the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, although not situated in as mountainous an area, is heavily fortified and partially underground, increasing the complexity of targeting. The Arak Heavy Water Reactor, while not as deeply fortified as Fordow, benefits from a strategic location that utilizes both natural and man-made defenses, enhancing its security.
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/04/08/the_sullivan_doctrine_1023595.html
