If RFK Jr. can get onto the ballot in all 50 states, I think he's likely to have a bigger impact than expected.
RFK Jr. is poised to be a chaos factor in November In a normal presidential election year, an anti-system third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would not be polling at nearly 10% at this point in the cycle. But this is not a normal year.
This is an election year ripe for an anti-establishment candidate to create significant uncertainty — and potentially stir some even bigger changes to the US party system. With the announcement of his running mate, Silicon Valley attorney and entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s campaign will expand its ballot access.
Assuming President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump officially receive the party nominations they have now clinched, the stage is set for a general election that could have the lowest combined approval rating for major party candidates ever (or at least in the history of polling).
Both Biden and Trump have approval ratings stuck in the 40s, where they have been for years. It has echoes of 2016 when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Trump broke records for the highest unfavorability ratings of any two candidates on Election Day.
On the surface, this double dislike seems puzzling: Shouldn’t one of the two parties have figured out how to elevate a more popular general election candidate? Perhaps. But something else is weird about this moment. In a December 2023 Gallup poll, not a single top US government official tested had a job approval rating over 50% — and Kennedy bucks this trend. Kennedy is the only presidential candidate with a net favorable rating.
It’s not just the candidates. Both major parties also have negative favorability ratings. And nearly three in 10 Americans (27%) now view both parties unfavorably — up from just 6% in 1994. (That mirrors the 26% who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably.) Americans overwhelmingly want more than two political parties. The share of Americans saying “a third major party is needed” hit a record high of 63% in Gallup polling last October. Young voters are especially eager for more choices.
And it’s not just the parties: Trust in institutions is low across the board. Gallup’s Average Confidence in Major US Institutions tracking hit a record low in 2023 — just 26%. ...............
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/28/opinions/rfk-jr-third-party-chaos-factor-election-drutman/index.html
