RCP as of today is posting their Projetion Maps. 1 that they call their actual electoral map that takes in account the closeness of the states, and another that slots them all no matter how close.....
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-collegehttps://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-collegeMy fitst take, and this could change as the dynamics of the election progresses, is that all but 8 states are fairly set for each candidate. I agree with RCP' assessment that there are 8 swing toss-ups that will decide who becomes POTUS. Those 8 states are GA,PA,MI, AZ,NV, WI, NC, MN, and in the mix too, is Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. These will decide the race.
Toss ups are enumerated as + or - 5%.
Leans- 5-10% lead.
Likely- 10-20% lead
Solid- >20% lead
And for addtional analysis, here are the swing states and how the composite early polling is comparing to 2020 results.....
AZ- 2020- Trump lost by 0.3%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 5.2%NV- 2020- Trump lost by 2.7%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 5.6%MN- 2020- Trump lost by 7.2%. 2024 plling composite-
Trump down by 3.0%WI- 2020- Trump lost by 0.7%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 1.0%MI- 2020- Trump lost by 2.8%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 3.5%PA- 2020- Trump lost by 1.2%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 0.6%NC- 2020- Trump won by 1.2%. 2024 polling composite-
Trump up by 5.5%GA- 2020- Trump lost by 0.3%. 2024 polling coompsite-
Trump up by 5.7%Across the board DJT has overperformed in every swing state versus 2020. And if you would check the rest of the states, I'd venture you'd see the same in the rest. But this far out, and polls in general mean nothing, except for trending.
