DRONES ARE TRANSFORMING THE BATTLEFIELD IN UKRAINE BUT IN AN EVOLUTIONARY FASHION
STACIE PETTYJOHN
MARCH 5, 2024
Headlines would lead one to conclude that the age of killer robots has arrived. In Ukraine, autonomous drone swarmssupposedly hunt for enemies and independently decide what to attack. Because Ukraine and Russia are employing many different types of drones, which are omnipresent over the frontlines, some observers have concluded that drones have fundamentally changed the character of war and are the key factor that will decide who prevails in the conflict. In my new Center for a New American Security Report, Evolution Not Revolution: Drone Warfare in Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine, I conclude the opposite. Drones have not fundamentally altered the character of war and will not determine who wins or loses this war. Nevertheless, drones are changing how Ukrainian and Russian troops fight at a tactical level and will impact all future battlefields.
Drones have indeed transformed the battlefield in Ukraine by providing accessible and affordable capabilities at a scale that did not previously exist. They are making it difficult to concentrate forces, achieve surprise, and conduct offensive operations. While drones are not more survivable than crewed aircraft, they enable greater risk acceptance. Moreover, drones do not have to be survivable if they are cheap and plentiful as they can achieve resiliency by reconstitution. Nevertheless, the overall impact of drones has been more evolutionary than revolutionary. Drones connected to ground-based fires units have made common artillery shells precision weapons. First-person-view kamikaze drones can accurately hit mobile targets, making the frontlines even more lethal. Nevertheless, even large numbers of small drones cannot match the potency or volume of artillery fire and thus cannot substitute for howitzers. Also, while drones provide affordable airpower, they have not replaced traditional air forces, nor have they been able to obtain air superiority. With this in mind, Washington should continue helping Ukraine improve its drone fleet, while being realistic about the impact this will have.
These Are Not the Drones You Are Looking For
Distinguishing fact from fiction during a war is often difficult, particularly when both sides are actively engaging in information warfare to shape others’ perceptions. The first drone that comes to mind for many when they think about the war in Ukraine is much-hyped Turkish built Bayraktar TB2, which was active in the first days and weeks of the war and helped to repel Russia’s initial attack. Yet overall, medium-altitude long-endurance drones, like the TB2 or the Russian Orion, have not played a large role in this war. Turkish propaganda portrayed the TB2 as a fantastic weapon that could evade even advanced air defenses and was affordable. In reality, however, once Russia relaxed the rules of engagement for its surface-to-air missiles most of the TB2s were quickly shot down and they essentially disappeared from the battlefield.
https://warontherocks.com/2024/03/drones-are-transforming-the-battlefield-in-ukraine-but-in-an-evolutionary-fashion/
