A FRAMEWORK FOR FORESIGHT: METHODS TO LEVERAGE THE LESSONS OF HISTORY
JOE DONATO
FEBRUARY 28, 2024
The Scottish poet, novelist, and historian Andrew Lang once quipped that politicians use statistics the way a drunkard uses a lamppost: “for support rather than illumination.” Indeed, the same line might be applied to the way policymakers use, or rather misuse, history. From incongruous analogies to procrustean parallels, the lamentable catalogue of abuses has prompted some historians to question the value of historical lessons and analogies as signposts for strategists.
In a recent article, historian Joseph Stieb warned policymakers against drawing too many lessons from history due to the endemic danger of distortion and misapplication. His warning is well founded, but he overlooks instructive methods applied historians have developed to mitigate the very pitfalls he laments. These techniques constitute a checklist to evaluate analogies, question presumptions, and place situations in their proper historical context; they prompt policymakers to systematically scrutinize historical parallels and substantiate their assertions with evidence instead of instinct. Their employment will not eliminate misuses of history but would refine how historical lessons are sourced and applied in decision-making.
Historical analogies are ineluctable in the decision-making process. The past, Robert Crowcroft notes, is “our sole repository for information about what works and what does not; we have nothing else to drawn upon.” Parallels from the past enable strategists to orient themselves in complex and dynamic situations. They provide an indispensable adaptive technique to inform judgement, recognize patterns, and understand perennial drivers of crisis and conflict. Notwithstanding the persistent danger of distortion, policymakers would find themselves in a worse predicament without lessons from history. It would be foolish, therefore, to abandon these instruments of orientation, especially without a sufficient replacement. When judiciously curated and applied, historical analogues can be invaluable aides for preventing war and managing fractious foreign partners. Despite their limitations, analogies, axioms, and lessons will continue to inform and influence how decision-makers orient, decide, and act on the world stage. Historians, therefore, should endeavor to ensure policymakers use them with greater precision.
https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/a-framework-for-foresight-methods-to-leverage-the-lessons-of-history/
