Historian who correctly predicted almost every election winner since 1984 reveals who is likely to w

[mystery-ak]

 Historian who correctly predicted almost every election winner since 1984 reveals who is likely to win in 2024
By Aubrie Spady, Joe Schoffstall, Fox News   
Published Feb. 7, 2024, 2:18 a.m. ET

The “Keys to the White House” are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election – and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot.

Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitor receives the point.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the “keys,” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch.
That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

According to American University, where Lichtman teaches the “keys” are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short term economy, long term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/02/07/news/historian-allan-lichtman-predicts-trump-biden-2024-election-winner/

[Polly Ticks]

I wish the article had given a breakdown of all of the "keys" that he gave to each candidate.

[DB]

If you want a measure of how bad the Republican candidate is, look at Biden... Biden still looks better than Trump to a lot of people. How could the bar be lower???

[DB]

I still think if Biden is moved aside by the powers that be a lot of people will be relieved and vote for that person because they hate both choices right now. Pretty pathetic state of affairs...

[Smokin Joe]

If you want a measure of how bad the Republican candidate is, look at Biden... Biden still looks better than Trump to a lot of people. How could the bar be lower???

Sounds like one helluva lot of people need glasses.

[libertybele]

Sounds like one helluva lot of people need glasses.

In reality -- how much of what the news is feeding us these day is true?  I take everything with a grain of salt.

I believe Glenn Beck and his reporting ... Mark Levine .... very few others.  Local news seems to be fairly reliable but it is sensationalized.

[libertybele]

I wish the article had given a breakdown of all of the "keys" that he gave to each candidate.

The article leaves out quite a bit of information.

[Smokin Joe]

In reality -- how much of what the news is feeding us these day is true?  I take everything with a grain of salt.

I believe Glenn Beck and his reporting ... Mark Levine .... very few others.  Local news seems to be fairly reliable but it is sensationalized.

I trust almost nothing I hear on the news, unless I was witness and they saw what I did. As a rule, it only gives me a place to start digging for the truth if I am so inclined. If the words "climate change" or "insurrection" are mentioned I assume it is lies and BS.

[sneakypete]

Sounds like one helluva lot of people need glasses.

@Smokin Joe

Can you  say "Ah hates rich peep-pulls!" class envy?

[jmyrlefuller]

Correlation does not imply causation; past performance is not a guarantee of future results. See: the Redskins Rule.

[jmyrlefuller]

@Smokin Joe

Can you  say "Ah hates rich peep-pulls!" class envy?

can you say "boot licker?"

[sneakypete]

can you say "boot licker?"

@jmyrlefuller

Can YOU say "comrade"?

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

Can you  say "Ah hates rich peep-pulls!" class envy?

Setting the proles against the bourgies is a Leninist tactic, old as the hills. But when NO ONE has been taught the evils of Marxism in practice in the last 50 years, what'd you expect.
Those who are historically ignorant (and they are Legion) will fall for the same crap the Russians did a century ago, and no one alive remembers it firsthand.

[jmyrlefuller]

Setting the proles against the bourgies is a Leninist tactic, old as the hills. But when NO ONE has been taught the evils of Marxism in practice in the last 50 years, what'd you expect.
Those who are historically ignorant (and they are Legion) will fall for the same crap the Russians did a century ago, and no one alive remembers it firsthand.

The institutionally wealthy were getting drunk on power and influence for centuries before that. The rich have ALWAYS either been against the poor or only seen them as useful pawns to make themselves more powerful.

Inasmuch as Marxism was successful at one thing, it was at vengeance. It could topple the corrupt, but it required so much power to do so that it became corrupt itself.

Just because a solution doesn't work doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist.

[roamer_1]

The institutionally wealthy were getting drunk on power and influence for centuries before that. The rich have ALWAYS either been against the poor or only seen them as useful pawns to make themselves more powerful.

Inasmuch as Marxism was successful at one thing, it was at vengeance. It could topple the corrupt, but it required so much power to do so that it became corrupt itself.

Just because a solution doesn't work doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist.

Close. It isn't the poor they want to destroy - It's the middle class - That extraordinary miracle that raises all boats... For the first time ever in history... Found only in western civ, and going all the way back to the Magna Carta. No bones about it. That's what they are aiming at, and that is what's at stake.

[sneakypete]

Setting the proles against the bourgies is a Leninist tactic, old as the hills. But when NO ONE has been taught the evils of Marxism in practice in the last 50 years, what'd you expect.
Those who are historically ignorant (and they are Legion) will fall for the same crap the Russians did a century ago, and no one alive remembers it firsthand.

@Smokin Joe

You just can't go  wrong if you  bet on human nature,and NOTHING is more powerful than greed and envy.

[sneakypete]

The institutionally wealthy were getting drunk on power and influence for centuries before that. The rich have ALWAYS either been against the poor or only seen them as useful pawns to make themselves more powerful.

Inasmuch as Marxism was successful at one thing, it was at vengeance. It could topple the corrupt, but it required so much power to do so that it became corrupt itself.

Just because a solution doesn't work doesn't mean the problem doesn't exist.

@jmyrlefuller

Marxism  was ALWAYS corrupt. Marx himself most likly sincere,but that doesn't mean he wasn't a fool and ripe pickings for the control freaks that wanted to run a slave state.

With  them,of course,being the only  ones who weren't slaves.

[sneakypete]

Close. It isn't the poor they want to destroy - It's the middle class - That extraordinary miracle that raises all boats... For the first time ever in history... Found only in western civ, and going all the way back to the Magna Carta. No bones about it. That's what they are aiming at, and that is what's at stake.

@roamer_1

BINGO!

[Smokin Joe]

@Smokin Joe

You just can't go  wrong if you  bet on human nature,and NOTHING is more powerful than greed and envy.

And the more reality is distorted, the more the sweat and hard work of those who enjoy a modicum of success is denigrated or denied, the worse that gets. The real exploiters are nowhere near those small businesses or shops, except to buy them out.

[Bigun]

@jmyrlefuller

Marxism  was ALWAYS corrupt. Marx himself most likly sincere,but that doesn't mean he wasn't a fool and ripe pickings for the control freaks that wanted to run a slave state.

With  them,of course,being the only  ones who weren't slaves.

Karl Marx was so friggin worthless he let half of his own children starve to death because he REFUSED to work.