January 13, 2024
Poll Analysis: A Surge in Black Voter Support for Trump
By M. Joseph Sheppard
Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were "quirky," given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a minimum, for a more accurate assessment.
Finding no such research available, I undertook what is, I believe, the first such analysis of the cumulative data from 17 current polls with a subset of Black voters, which revealed a striking, if not historical, shift in Black voting preferences toward the Republican Party, and particularly to Donald Trump.
Collated were notable polls from reputable sources, which were included in the Real Clear Politics and 538 aggregates, such as Suffolk, Siena/NYT, BigData, Fox, I&ITIPP, CBS, Emerson, and Rasmussen.
The aggregate of all 17 polls showed that 21.9% of black voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, with many individual polls showing Trump polling above 20%; for example, ActiVote had 34.4% of the black vote going to Trump.
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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/01/poll_analysis_a_surge_in_black_voter_support_for_trump.html