Speaker Johnson's 'Deal' With Democrats Will Increase Spending
Christopher Jacobs
With “friends” like Mike Johnson, do conservatives really need enemies?
That question, harsh as it sounds, should echo in the minds of individuals and groups who want to restrain Washington’s inflation-causing spending. The agreement House Speaker Johnson cut with Democrats over the weekend would actually raise spending compared to what would happen under the status quo. That additional spending binge might constitute the kind of change Democrats believe in, but it shouldn’t persuade fellow Republicans to sign off on this ill-conceived plan.
Debt Deal’s Spending Caps
Almost eight months ago, I wrote about how the debt limit agreement then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., negotiated with Democrats virtually guaranteed another massive omnibus spending bill. As part of that argument, I noted that the debt limit deal contained provisions triggering automatic changes in spending levels should Congress not pass all 12 of its annual appropriations measures.
Back in May, those changes meant that “spending on defense programs — which Republicans generally support — will decrease, while spending on non-defense programs will actually increase when compared to the underlying spending targets laid out in the debt limit bill” (emphasis original). I argued in May that Republican “defense hawks” would push for an omnibus to avoid those automatic cuts, and Democrats would likewise have leverage to demand a bloated omnibus spending bill, because doing nothing would otherwise result in two outcomes they largely support — lower defense spending and higher non-defense spending.
But the dynamic changed substantially in the months since, in a way that gives Republicans additional leverage. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reestimated the spending caps due to budgetary “anomalies” and other technical changes. (Wonky details are available in this article.)
The end result of the CBO reestimate? If the debt deal’s spending caps kick in, non-defense spending would decrease significantly, while defense spending would get held largely flat. In other words, conservatives have significant leverage to demand spending concessions from Democrats, because the status quo under current law would result in an outcome most conservatives would support.
more
https://thefederalist.com/2024/01/10/speaker-johnson-folds-like-a-cheap-suit-allowing-democrats-to-increase-spending/
