Heads Up on Artic Blast Early Next Week

[catfish1957]

Recent Model Runs are showing that the middle of country is going to be in the deep freeze very late this week, going int early next week.  Even down to the Gulf Coast. On the GFS at the 120 hour point they are progosticating  a 1052Mb High right at the Canadian/Montana border.   That is atm pressure of 31.06 Mercury.  A Big one.   

Followed by a second similar one at the 210 hour point.  About 8 days from now.  Front Range and Upper plains? I am hearing maybe in the -20 to -30 a poossibility.   With zero down to about a line from the TX/OK panhanle- MO/AR borders.  Gulf coast might be in the teens.  Agian this is just a modeled forecast, but right now I have a pretty good idea things are about to really get chill.  Bundle up and prepare accordingly.

[bigheadfred]

I have been watching this. They had expected lows in the minus for the weekend (-10) but have raised it to around +10 now. The ten day is midteen low average and mid twenties highs.

[Bigun]

Weather for next week.

I just received this from my friend who works for the National Weather Service in Houston. Plan accordingly.

You've probably heard the TV forecasters talking about an Arctic outbreak that will be heading our way and some additional details are becoming available in the various forecast models.

Currently, most of the models have the cold front reaching southeast Texas by late Sunday/early Monday and open the door for an Arctic airmass to spill southward. The 0000Z European ECMWF model has our temperature locally falling to the 29-30 degree range by Sunday afternoon and is forecasting lows of 21-23 Monday, 11-12 Tuesday, and 24-25 Wednesday before southerly winds and a rapid warmup begin. The ECMWF also wants to bring some freezing precipitation through late on Monday.

The 0000Z Canadian GEM is a little slower with frontal arrival but also somewhat colder. It is forecasting a Sunday afternoon low in the 50s but has temperatures bottoming out in the 18-21 range Monday and to a bone chilling 8-9 Tuesday before rising to a balmy 10 or so Wednesday. The GEM's warmup doesn't really kick in until Thursday. The GEM is also forecasting some freezing precip getting close but has it further to our east.

The 12Z American GFS is still running but its 0000Z output, while still showing very cold temperatures and a hard freeze n the Monday-Wednesday period, was marginally warmer than the ECMWF and GEM. The 0000Z GFS wasn't forecasting any frozen precip for our area and realistically it is still too early to take a definitive position.

At this point in time, the safest forecast is to say we are looking at a hard freeze next week and preparations need to be made before the cold air gets here.

This morning's graphic from the HGX forecast office is included below.

[Free Vulcan]

Oh yeah, it's gonna be that kind of cold

[Free Vulcan]

You hate to go thru it, but the brutal cold not only keeps critters some of you all have down there, it also heaves the ground to make an excellent soil bed for growing in the spring.

[Cyber Liberty]

We have a cold snap in progress here in the Mojave Desert.  Got below +40 several night now, avoiding a hard freeze.

For us this is cold.  Any time below 40 is too damned cold.  I moved to the Mojave to get out of this crap.  Give me my 120F Summer days back!

[Cyber Liberty]

Topics Merged.

[libertybele]

We are under a tornado watch until 9pm tonight.  Coastal flooding is possible of 1-2 ft. Wind gusts right now of 50mph. Cold front to then move in. DeSantis has called a state of emergency in quite a few counties. We've never experienced weather likes this, this time of year and we've been down here 30 years. 

[Polly Ticks]

Supposed to have a high of 14 degrees here next week. 
I bet my kids will be happy that I got them wool socks and gloves for Christmas. 

[libertybele]

Supposed to have a high of 14 degrees here next week. 
I bet my kids will be happy that I got them wool socks and gloves for Christmas. 

That's cold, they'll be thanking you. 

[roamer_1]

they say we'll be 26 below by Thursday... That's 3 dogs for sure...

[bigheadfred]

We are getting heavy snow with a 20 mph wind right now. The snow is supposed to stop soon, but it is a mess out there now.

[Cyber Liberty]

We are getting heavy snow with a 20 mph wind right now. The snow is supposed to stop soon, but it is a mess out there now.

Yeah, drifting like all get-out!  I may have lived in AZ for better than 40 years, but I lived in Michigan before getting smarts and getting the heck outta there!

[berdie]

Supposed to be our first real cold next Monday/Tuesday. Although I almost feel ashamed about griping, after reading previous posts....man, do I dread it! I despise cold weather.

[GtHawk]

To everyone affected, stay safe and stay warm. Remember Canoodling is an exceptional way to generate, er, heat
Of course there is always beverages.
https://www.thepioneerwoman.com/food-cooking/meals-menus/g45123054/hot-drink-recipes/

[corbe]

[corbe]

Weatherman ,,,,,,Hank Williams JR


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSDZsNJKeDg

[LMAO]

We have had a very mild winter up until this point, but we’re supposed to go through a weeklong cold snap starting after this weekend

The issue is the lack of snow. Last year we ended the winter with record snowfall. There’s only about 6 inches of snow on the ground right now.

But it looks like it warms up again after that

[catfish1957]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

[Free Vulcan]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

They are talking about 10" here in the Florida of Iowa, and some butt spankin' cold for several days after that.

[roamer_1]

They are talking about 10" here in the Florida of Iowa, and some butt spankin' cold for several days after that.

eh... hard saying how much snow... It's sandy and blowing hard. There's only 3" on the truck, but in wind, that don't mean much... zero right now, and windy. 16 below by tonight, nearly 30 below the next night... Seems like below zero till about Tuesday... so not so long... But with little snow on the ground, this is going to drive frost like a sledge hammer, and it feels pretty bitter - usually there would be 3
' of snow between me and all that cold. Not true this year.

[Free Vulcan]

eh... hard saying how much snow... It's sandy and blowing hard. There's only 3" on the truck, but in wind, that don't mean much... zero right now, and windy. 16 below by tonight, nearly 30 below the next night... Seems like below zero till about Tuesday... so not so long... But with little snow on the ground, this is going to drive frost like a sledge hammer, and it feels pretty bitter - usually there would be 3
' of snow between me and all that cold. Not true this year.

We got 6 a couple of days ago, so now's the pile on. In some ways I wish we would have gotten the cold before the snow because of all it's ground heaving and bug killing properties. Keep those nasty critters down south where they belong. 

The comedy part is the youngins who haven't dealt with this much. They're like 'WTH is this crap?' and the older ones are like 'WINTER! Which we had nearly every %&*#^~! year growing up!'

[roamer_1]

We got 6 a couple of days ago, so now's the pile on. In some ways I wish we would have gotten the cold before the snow because of all it's ground heaving and bug killing properties. Keep those nasty critters down south where they belong. 

The comedy part is the youngins who haven't dealt with this much. They're like 'WTH is this crap?' and the older ones are like 'WINTER! Which we had nearly every %&*#^~! year growing up!'

I'm trying to figure the last time we went hard below zero... It's been a while, but not that long... A couple years ago I was in a hot tent up above Dickey Lake, and it was under 10 below then. But it's been a while. Hard on folks living up in the woods right now

[roamer_1]

Well... here it is... A wailing devil wind outside. they shut off the airport, and schools letting out early. No school tomorrow... It's a howler.

[berdie]

Looking at the GFS, the Arctic blast seems to be coming on cue, at abut 1050ish Mb clip.  What I am seeing freaky now is this expected  972 Mb low forming and deepening in Mo, creeping up the Ohio River Valley into the Great Lakes.  I am guessing we are going to see some pretty impressive snow totals in those areas.  Midwest blizzards ?  Good chance I am guessing

Not really understanding all the technical talk, but seems like my hope of an inaccurate forecast here in NE TX is dashed. I think I'll move some more wood inside. My propane tank is on 60 per cent. I guess I'll see how efficient it really is.

As always, my heart goes out to all in the far northern areas. Stay safe.