Dec 26, 2023 -
Economy
The 2024 economy could be shockingly normal
Neil Irwin
The economy in 2024 is on track to be described with a word that hasn't been applicable yet this decade: Normal.
Why it matters: The extraordinary stresses of a pandemic, inflation, war, and the onset of tight money over the last four years have created a collective sense of an economy unmoored. But there is good reason to think 2024 will give way to something less chaotic.
Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is already back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.
What they're saying: This forecast of a normal economy — simultaneously dodging the pain of high inflation, high interest rates, and high unemployment — isn't some remote pipe dream. It's the answer you get when you ask all kinds of decision-makers what they think is most likely.
It's the answer we got when we asked about 600 Axios Macro readers how they expect the economy to perform in 2024. They put 25% odds on a 2024 recession, down from 50% a year earlier.
It's also the answer from 141 CEO's of America's biggest companies. And panels of professional economic forecasters. And government agencies that project these things.
"You're seeing so many of the indicators coming back to normal," Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference this month. (He did caveat: "not all of them.")
more
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/26/2024-economy-interest-rates-inflation-labor
