ISRAEL RADAR 9/21/2020
In a 2009 book, geopolitical analyst George Friedman made the following predictions: By the late 2020s, US-Turkish ties will become increasingly uneasy; Turkey will pursue aggressive regional expansion and portray itself as an Islamic power; by the 2040s, Turkish belligerent moves will frighten Israel.
It now seems that Friedman’s Middle East predictions were essentially correct, but his timeline was too generous. US-Turkish ties already became shaky, Turkey is already less secular and more aggressive, and Israel is already alarmed.
In 2020, the annual IDF assessment for the first time identified Turkey as a “challenge” to Israel. Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen reportedly told Arab leaders that Turkey is the “real threat” Israel faces rather than Iran, whose power is more fragile in the longer-term.
Israel-Turkey relations have been tense for years, with Ankara often adopting a harsh anti-Israel line. For some time, Turkey has been an ally of Hamas and supported its activities. The Turks also cooperated with radical elements in Jerusalem to expand their hostile influence in the city.
However, as time passes, the Israeli-Turkish rivalry could escalate to dangerous levels. An Israel-Turkey clash, seen as improbable not too long ago, may become increasingly likely by 2030.
Turkish nuclear threat?Turkey is openly harboring nuclear ambitions. It previously signed a $20 billion deal with Russia for four nuclear power plants, to be built by 2025. But Ankara has its eye on more than just civilian nuclear energy.
In at least one case, President Erdogan condemned the monopoly that prevents Turkey from acquiring atomic weapons. His criticism singled out Israel, charging that it scares other nations with its alleged nuclear arsenal.
Notably, Israel’s defense doctrine stipulates that hostile actors in the region must not obtain nuclear bombs. This calls for using all measures including military force to stop emerging nuclear powers, wrote Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser.
A hostile nuclear Turkey will pose a grave problem for Israel and widely escalate their tense dynamic. However, bombing Turkey is not an option as long as Ankara and Washington are still allies, Freilich said. But what happens if US-Turkish relations sour? Nuclear friction and confrontation will then become likelier.
More:
https://israelradar.com/middle-east-predictions-israel-turkey-war-by-2030/
