There’s a 15% chance US will enter recession: Goldman Sachs

[Kamaji]

There’s a 15% chance US will enter recession:  Goldman Sachs

By Ariel Zilber
September 5, 2023

Goldman Sachs has reduced the odds of a recession in the US from 20% to 15% as analysts at the Wall Street investment bank cite lower rates of inflation and a stubbornly resilient job market that make it more likely the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates any further.

While inflation has cooled, American families continue to be squeezed by the rate of price increases, which have exacerbated credit card and car loan defaults.

A recent survey also found that some 61% of Americans said they were living paycheck to paycheck.

While the Consumer Price Index has cooled somewhat, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, rose 3.3% over one year earlier in July, up from June’s 3%.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius predicted that “real disposable income looks set to reaccelerate in 2024 on the back of continue solid job growth and rising real wages.”

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Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/09/05/goldman-sachs-says-15-chance-us-will-enter-recession/

[libertybele]

That's funny, I thought that we already were in a recession heading towards a depression. 

[cato potatoe]

That's funny, I thought that we already were in a recession heading towards a depression.

Economic growth could be stronger, and entitlements are major drag in the long term, but conservative media tend to present a hysterical version of reality.

[catfish1957]

Economic growth could be stronger, and entitlements are major drag in the long term, but conservative media tend to present a hysterical version of reality.

Is $33T in debt, and that at a rate of 145% of GDP a hysterical version of reality?  Sorry you don't recognize what is the massive example of "kicking the can" down the road, as postponing the inevitable.

This level of debt never has or will ever be sustainable.

[cato potatoe]

Is $33T in debt, and that at a rate of 145% of GDP a hysterical version of reality?  Sorry you don't recognize what is the massive example of "kicking the can" down the road, as postponing the inevitable.

This level of debt never has or will ever be sustainable.

It's an undeniable mess in the long term, but does not translate to an economic calamity in the next few years.  If there is Biden campaign, he is bound to champion "17 million new jobs" and "lower inflation."  Rush Limbaugh et al. kept forecasting a depression when Clinton and Obama were elected.  Now to be certain their policies factored into a decline in the standard of living, but the general public is jaded whenever fire & brimstone do not rain down.

[catfish1957]

It's an undeniable mess in the long term, but does not translate to an economic calamity in the next few years.  If there is Biden campaign, he is bound to champion "17 million new jobs" and "lower inflation."  Rush Limbaugh et al. kept forecasting a depression when Clinton and Obama were elected.  Now to be certain their policies factored into a decline in the standard of living, but the general public is jaded whenever fire & brimstone do not rain down.

Agree in principal.  But....   Even in my most wildest dreams, I never thought that that "can kicking" would be so perpetuated that basically both parties have cast a blind eye toward this pending economic disaster. There is zero fiscal sanity in DC right now.   I understand your premise that the degredation of the standard of living gradually is underway.  But...  we are two or three bits of bad news that will likely trigger an economic Armageddon.  I have been a keen investor for many decades, but can I predict the exact day this house of cards collapses?  Of course not.  But I think there is a 75-90% chance we'll see it in my lifetime.