What If?
By Chris Williams
August 03, 2023
Javier Miranda
Storm clouds are gathering. The United States faces an increasingly threatening political-military environment driven by a range of hostile adversaries armed with increasingly sophisticated means and methods of debilitating attack. Will current domestic distractions prevent our leaders from fashioning effective policies and plans to anticipate and repel such attacks? Do we have the requisite military capabilities to deter or defeat such threats?
The 9/11 Commission cited “a failure of imagination” as one of the principal causes of America’s inability to anticipate and prevent the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, DC on that fateful morning almost twenty-two years ago. Consistent with that finding, one must ask: What If?
What if Vladimir Putin, having finally recognized that he will not achieve his goal of subjugating Ukraine, authorized strikes against various Ukrainian targets using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to shock NATO, destroy critical infrastructure, and leave key cities uninhabitable? What if immediately thereafter Putin agreed to a “ceasefire-in-place” and called for “face-to-face negotiations to resolve the matter of Ukraine” – an approach that would leave Russia in control of occupied Ukrainian territory? And what if Putin encouraged Wagner Group mercenaries to launch attacks against Poland, a NATO ally, all while denying responsibility for such actions? How would the U.S., NATO, and others respond?
By Chris Williams
August 03, 2023
Javier Miranda
Storm clouds are gathering. The United States faces an increasingly threatening political-military environment driven by a range of hostile adversaries armed with increasingly sophisticated means and methods of debilitating attack. Will current domestic distractions prevent our leaders from fashioning effective policies and plans to anticipate and repel such attacks? Do we have the requisite military capabilities to deter or defeat such threats?
The 9/11 Commission cited “a failure of imagination” as one of the principal causes of America’s inability to anticipate and prevent the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, DC on that fateful morning almost twenty-two years ago. Consistent with that finding, one must ask: What If?
What if Vladimir Putin, having finally recognized that he will not achieve his goal of subjugating Ukraine, authorized strikes against various Ukrainian targets using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to shock NATO, destroy critical infrastructure, and leave key cities uninhabitable? What if immediately thereafter Putin agreed to a “ceasefire-in-place” and called for “face-to-face negotiations to resolve the matter of Ukraine” – an approach that would leave Russia in control of occupied Ukrainian territory? And what if Putin encouraged Wagner Group mercenaries to launch attacks against Poland, a NATO ally, all while denying responsibility for such actions? How would the U.S., NATO, and others respond?
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/08/03/what_if_970441.html
