Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes

[Right_in_Virginia]

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes
Kyiv complains that it doesn’t have air power, but that is not the real source of its recent struggles
The Telegraph/UK, Jul 21, 2023

With no significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive can ever succeed, for it certainly doesn’t look to be succeeding now.

Compare the glacial but costly progress today to the lightning victories at Kharkiv and Kherson last autumn. Back then Kyiv’s forces were advancing against a withdrawing enemy that was pulling back to redeploy troops, trading space for time. Having now built up their forces through mobilisation and dug extensive defence lines, this time the Russians aren’t going anywhere.

That has left Ukraine with one option: launching frontal attacks against heavily defended positions, almost akin to the Western Front in World War I where trench lines ran continuously from Switzerland to the sea, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough for four years. Such an outcome today would leave Kyiv vulnerable to shifts in Western opinion, given the possibility of a Trump presidency or European fatigue. This is something President Zelensky must be aware of; and is perhaps causing great consternation.

The question to be asked is: are the Ukrainians prepared – militarily, politically, financially – to carry out months and potentially years of these attacks to penetrate 1914-18 style defensive belts of tank traps, barbed wire, minefields, bunkers and trench lines? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these Russian fortifications as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.


More:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/21/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-failing-with-no-easy-fixes/

[Kamaji]

RiV telling us the counteroffensive is failing is like the fox telling the chickens he's a vegan. 

Dearie, you blew your credibility so long ago, you're a laughing-stock.

[PeteS in CA]

1. Please refrain from going personal.

2. If Ukraine's counter-offensive is failing, why is Putin firing generals leading his invasion? Why are Russian forces pulling back from their small 10 months of gains in/around Bakhmut? Why are the Russians advancing to the rear, slowly, from their defensive lines protecting the route to Mariupol?

[ScottinVA]

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is failing, with no easy fixes
Kyiv complains that it doesn’t have air power, but that is not the real source of its recent struggles
The Telegraph/UK, Jul 21, 2023

With no significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive can ever succeed, for it certainly doesn’t look to be succeeding now.

Compare the glacial but costly progress today to the lightning victories at Kharkiv and Kherson last autumn. Back then Kyiv’s forces were advancing against a withdrawing enemy that was pulling back to redeploy troops, trading space for time. Having now built up their forces through mobilisation and dug extensive defence lines, this time the Russians aren’t going anywhere.

That has left Ukraine with one option: launching frontal attacks against heavily defended positions, almost akin to the Western Front in World War I where trench lines ran continuously from Switzerland to the sea, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough for four years. Such an outcome today would leave Kyiv vulnerable to shifts in Western opinion, given the possibility of a Trump presidency or European fatigue. This is something President Zelensky must be aware of; and is perhaps causing great consternation.

The question to be asked is: are the Ukrainians prepared – militarily, politically, financially – to carry out months and potentially years of these attacks to penetrate 1914-18 style defensive belts of tank traps, barbed wire, minefields, bunkers and trench lines? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these Russian fortifications as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.


More:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/21/ukraines-counter-offensive-is-failing-with-no-easy-fixes/

These so-called "analysts" would've declared Operation Overlord a "failure" because of its slow movement through German defenses.  The Ukrainians will be fine... day by day, they're punching holes against the orcs and will in time find that weak point to exploit.

[Kamaji]

These so-called "analysts" would've declared Operation Overlord a "failure" because of its slow movement through German defenses. 

[ScottinVA]

RiV telling us the counteroffensive is failing is like the fox telling the chickens he's a vegan. 

Dearie, you blew your credibility so long ago, you're a laughing-stock.

[ScottinVA]

1. Please refrain from going personal.

2. If Ukraine's counter-offensive is failing, why is Putin firing generals leading his invasion? Why are Russian forces pulling back from their small 10 months of gains in/around Bakhmut? Why are the Russians advancing to the rear, slowly, from their defensive lines protecting the route to Mariupol?

It's amazing how the pro-Putin types try to comfort themselves in "analysis" that is clearly shown to be false.  Every existing war map outside of the Russian propaganda outlets shows the Ukrainians gaining steadily, albeit slowly.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Ukraine's counteroffensive is progressing slowly, much like the initial Allied landings in Normandy.

https://www.newsweek.com/maps-ukraine-counteroffensive-isw-1813172
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

In previous conflicts, breakthroughs were accomplished via battles of movement - amphibious assaults or mechanized assaults with tactical air cover.

Ukraine really needs tanks and combat aircraft to break through.  This is where the Biden Admin's ambivalence, hesitation, and procrastination bites Ukraine in the @$$.

[Kamaji]

Ukraine's counteroffensive is progressing slowly, much like the initial Allied landings in Normandy.

https://www.newsweek.com/maps-ukraine-counteroffensive-isw-1813172
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

In previous conflicts, breakthroughs were accomplished via battles of movement - amphibious assaults or mechanized assaults with tactical air cover.

Ukraine really needs tanks and combat aircraft to break through.  This is where the Biden Admin's ambivalence, hesitation, and procrastination bites Ukraine in the @$$.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The truth is Ukraine probably doesn't yet have enough stuff to break through defensive lines the Russians have been building for nearly a year.  Lots of minefields, etc..

I think it's going to take a lot of "shaping" for Ukraine to have big success.  That's going to mean knocking out a lot of artillery, ammo depots, etc..  The cluster munitions will help but it is going to take awhile.

[Kamaji]

The truth is Ukraine probably doesn't yet have enough stuff to break through defensive lines the Russians have been building for nearly a year.  Lots of minefields, etc..

I think it's going to take a lot of "shaping" for Ukraine to have big success.  That's going to mean knocki g out a lot of artillery, ammo depots, etc..  The cluster munitions will help but it is going to take awhile.

I believe the mine fields are a big part of the problem.  One simply cannot go charging off into a potential mine field without first taking the time to clear it; and that can be difficult if the enemy are lobbing artillery at the mine clearers.

[DefiantMassRINO]

March herds of farm animals across them.  It won't clear them all, but it will clear many.

Or, have Russian POW's clear them.  Russian soldiers will be forced to fire upon their comrades.

Ask yourself, what would Stalin do?

I believe the mine fields are a big part of the problem.  One simply cannot go charging off into a potential mine field without first taking the time to clear it; and that can be difficult if the enemy are lobbing artillery at the mine clearers.

[Kamaji]

March herds of farm animals across them.  It won't clear them all, but it will clear many.

Or, have Russian POW's clear them.  Russian soldiers will be forced to fire upon their comrades.

Ask yourself, what would Stalin do?

Doing that would almost certainly be a clear war crime.