Here’s What Will Probably Happen If Trump Wins The GOP Nomination

[Kamaji]

Here’s What Will Probably Happen If Trump Wins The GOP Nomination

Scott Morefield
Jul 17, 2023

It’s easy these days to get lost in the media coverage of the economy, Trump indictments, primary races, tranny-madness, UFOs, wars, and other assorted goings-on and forget just how close we are to losing this country permanently. And by permanently, I mean P-E-R-M-A-N-E-N-T-L-Y, as in forever, irreversible, everlasting, the kind of change that would, God forbid, take a successful armed revolt, defeat to a foreign enemy in war, or a zombie apocalypse to render void.

*  *  *

It’s scary to think about just how close to the razor’s edge we really are. In other words, we don’t have time to play. But playing is exactly what a large percentage of Republicans are doing by supporting Donald Trump’s ridiculous third run for the presidency. For those of us on the outside looking in (but only recently for me - I supported Trump through 2020), it’s like watching some sort of slow moving, yet preventable, train wreck. We know exactly how this ends, but a large percentage of the people we’re trying to warn still refuse to get off. So, in the context of the political landscape over the next two years, what does this ball of fire and wreckage look like exactly? Here are a few very likely possibilities behind Door Number One:

Trump gets fewer votes than he did in 2020.
I hear all the time from Trump supporters who insist that their guy got 74 million votes in 2020, a “record” for Republican candidates, even as they ignore inconvenient facts like Biden getting 81 million (even subtracting the fraud, that’s a LOT of leftists crawling over hot coals to vote against Trump) and that vote totals from EVERY election increases as the population increases over four years. But even accounting for that last fact, I’m still willing to go out on a limb and say that Trump could very well break a whole different GOP record by getting FEWER votes than he did in 2020. Mark it down.

Trump gets fewer electoral votes than he did in 2020.
Along with fewer popular votes comes fewer electoral votes. Trump will, of course, drop all the states he lost in 2020. That’s obvious. He’s polling behind in every one of them and has done nothing to move the needle in a positive direction. He will also likely lose a state or two he isn’t supposed to, like Ohio or North Carolina. It’ll be a disaster Republicans haven’t experienced in decades.

Republicans will lose the House.
With Trump on the ticket weighing everyone down, especially moderates who barely won to eke out a party control flip in 2020, Republicans will almost certainly give the House of Representatives back to Democrats. And when Hakeem Jeffries gets that gavel, we’ll be longing for the good old days of Nancy Pelosi.

Republicans will be on track to lose the Senate.
My esteemed Townhall colleague Kurt Schlichter recently predicted that Republicans, even with Trump at the helm, could gain two seats in what should be the best GOP Senate cycle in decades. That would give them a tenuous 51-49 majority that would delay the worst Democratic legislation for a while. However, when the tide turns back to Democrats in 2026, the nightmare will really begin. And this time, there will be no Joe Manchin to hold them back.

*  *  *

Source:  https://townhall.com/columnists/scottmorefield/2023/07/17/heres-what-will-probably-happen-if-trump-wins-the-gop-nomination-n2625785

[Idiot]

Here’s What Will Probably Happen If Trump Wins The GOP Nomination

Scott Morefield
Jul 17, 2023

It’s easy these days to get lost in the media coverage of the economy, Trump indictments, primary races, tranny-madness, UFOs, wars, and other assorted goings-on and forget just how close we are to losing this country permanently. And by permanently, I mean P-E-R-M-A-N-E-N-T-L-Y, as in forever, irreversible, everlasting, the kind of change that would, God forbid, take a successful armed revolt, defeat to a foreign enemy in war, or a zombie apocalypse to render void.

*  *  *

It’s scary to think about just how close to the razor’s edge we really are. In other words, we don’t have time to play. But playing is exactly what a large percentage of Republicans are doing by supporting Donald Trump’s ridiculous third run for the presidency. For those of us on the outside looking in (but only recently for me - I supported Trump through 2020), it’s like watching some sort of slow moving, yet preventable, train wreck. We know exactly how this ends, but a large percentage of the people we’re trying to warn still refuse to get off. So, in the context of the political landscape over the next two years, what does this ball of fire and wreckage look like exactly? Here are a few very likely possibilities behind Door Number One:

Trump gets fewer votes than he did in 2020.
I hear all the time from Trump supporters who insist that their guy got 74 million votes in 2020, a “record” for Republican candidates, even as they ignore inconvenient facts like Biden getting 81 million (even subtracting the fraud, that’s a LOT of leftists crawling over hot coals to vote against Trump) and that vote totals from EVERY election increases as the population increases over four years. But even accounting for that last fact, I’m still willing to go out on a limb and say that Trump could very well break a whole different GOP record by getting FEWER votes than he did in 2020. Mark it down.

Trump gets fewer electoral votes than he did in 2020.
Along with fewer popular votes comes fewer electoral votes. Trump will, of course, drop all the states he lost in 2020. That’s obvious. He’s polling behind in every one of them and has done nothing to move the needle in a positive direction. He will also likely lose a state or two he isn’t supposed to, like Ohio or North Carolina. It’ll be a disaster Republicans haven’t experienced in decades.

Republicans will lose the House.
With Trump on the ticket weighing everyone down, especially moderates who barely won to eke out a party control flip in 2020, Republicans will almost certainly give the House of Representatives back to Democrats. And when Hakeem Jeffries gets that gavel, we’ll be longing for the good old days of Nancy Pelosi.

Republicans will be on track to lose the Senate.
My esteemed Townhall colleague Kurt Schlichter recently predicted that Republicans, even with Trump at the helm, could gain two seats in what should be the best GOP Senate cycle in decades. That would give them a tenuous 51-49 majority that would delay the worst Democratic legislation for a while. However, when the tide turns back to Democrats in 2026, the nightmare will really begin. And this time, there will be no Joe Manchin to hold them back.

*  *  *

Source:  https://townhall.com/columnists/scottmorefield/2023/07/17/heres-what-will-probably-happen-if-trump-wins-the-gop-nomination-n2625785

And there you have it!  Trump can't possibly win the general election!

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The issue is that the "large percentage of Republicans who support Donald Trump" often view Trump as the only acceptable GOP nominee - they'd rather lose with Trump than win with any other Republican.

And that's because they view anyone who would deprive Trump of the nomination/Presidency as a tool of the Deep State/Uniparty by definition.  That's how a hardcore conservative like DeSantis can be considered Uniparty/Deep State - because the mere fact that he is running for the nomination against Trump proves it.

Not everyone supporting Trump in the primary thinks that way, but I'd guess a majority does.  And I don't really think there's much that can be done about it.  So we're left with a bunch of those who won't vote for any Republican but Trump in the general election, and a bunch of others who will vote for any Republican except Trump in the general election.

Maybe I'm wrong about that - hope so, anyway.

[ScottinVA]

Hard to disagree with that assessment.  Unfortunately too many GOP voters would rather lose with Trump and spend the rest of their days bitching about fraud, real or imagined, than to actually win elections.

Trump is not going to win back the presidency… ever.

[LMAO]

Hard to disagree with that assessment.  Unfortunately too many GOP voters would rather lose with Trump and spend the rest of their days bitching about fraud, real or imagined, than to actually win elections.

Trump is not going to win back the presidency… ever.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with somebody sticking to their principals. I have voted for candidates that I was  ideologically aligned with that I knew wouldn’t win. I wrote in Ron Paul in 2008, voted Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2016. I knew they weren’t going to win the presidency but I couldn’t vote for McCain, Romney, or Trump

And I never argued  that if somebody doesn’t vote for a candidate X, that means they’re voting for candidate Y. Both sides make that argument and it’s a really dumb one. No candidate is entitled to someone’s vote.

[Kamaji]

The issue is that the "large percentage of Republicans who support Donald Trump" often view Trump as the only acceptable GOP nominee - they'd rather lose with Trump than with with any other Republican.

And that's because they view anyone who would deprive Trump of the nomination/Presidency as a tool of the Deep State/Uniparty by definition.  That's how a hardcore conservative like DeSantis can be considered Uniparty/Deep State - because the mere fact that he is running for the nomination against Trump proves it.

Not everyone supporting Trump in the primary thinks that way, but I'd guess a majority does.  And I don't really think there's much that can be done about it.  So we're left with a bunch of those who won't vote for any Republican but Trump in the general election, and a bunch of others who will vote for any Republican except Trump in the general election.

Maybe I'm wrong about that - hope so, anyway.

Hard to disagree with that assessment.  Unfortunately too many GOP voters would rather lose with Trump and spend the rest of their days bitching about fraud, real or imagined, than to actually win elections.

Trump is not going to win back the presidency… ever.

[DB]

Trump was a poison pill from the beginning. Like Bush brought us Obama, Trump brought us Biden. And here we are 7 years later still dealing with the major repercussions of it all - and likely for another 5 years to come before it is finally in the rearview mirror. All in the pursuit of hyperbole and shiny objects that tickled their eyes and ears without substance.

[bigheadfred]

My write in candidate since 88 has won every damned time. Change my mind.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with somebody sticking to their principals. I have voted for candidates that I was  ideologically aligned with that I knew wouldn’t win. I wrote in Ron Paul in 2008, voted Gary Johnson in 2012 and 2016. I knew they weren’t going to win the presidency but I couldn’t vote for McCain, Romney, or Trump

And I never argued  that if somebody doesn’t vote for a candidate X, that means they’re voting for candidate Y. Both sides make that argument and it’s a really dumb one. No candidate is entitled to someone’s vote.

You're right on all counts.  And that's exactly why I believe a critical mass of GOP-leaning voters on either side likely will mean a Democrat President in 2024.  I say that as someone who has flipped into being a NeverTrump guy after voting for him in 2016 and 2020, so I'm part of that calculus.

[sneakypete]

Hard to disagree with that assessment.  Unfortunately too many GOP voters would rather lose with Trump and spend the rest of their days bitching about fraud, real or imagined, than to actually win elections.

Trump is not going to win back the presidency… ever.

@ScottinVA

Yeah,mo betta to "win" with a RINO insider whose nose lives UP the asses of the DNC,right?

[ScottinVA]

I didn’t say that, Pete.  You apply the Reagan principle and go with a conservative who can win the general election.  Trump has burned way too many bridges and turned off too many voters.   He probably will win the GOP nomination, but that is all the further the MAGA vote can carry him.

[libertybele]

So, Trump lost the election but the GOP gained seats in the House.  I question that if Trump becomes the GOP nominee that they will lose the House and Senate.  I see it as the other way around.

[jmyrlefuller]

@ScottinVA

Yeah,mo betta to "win" with a RINO insider whose nose lives UP the asses of the DNC,right?

Yeah.

Yeah, it is better. Not by much, but still better than what we have now.

[Kamaji]

I didn’t say that, Pete.  You apply the Reagan principle and go with a conservative who can win the general election.  Trump has burned way too many bridges and turned off too many voters.   He probably will win the GOP nomination, but that is all the further the MAGA vote can carry him.

[sneakypete]

I didn’t say that, Pete.  You apply the Reagan principle and go with a conservative who can win the general election.  Trump has burned way too many bridges and turned off too many voters.   He probably will win the GOP nomination, but that is all the further the MAGA vote can carry him.

@ScottinVA

If what you wrote is true,that will mean Trump lost because alleged Republicans would rather see a Dim in the WH than a registered Republican outsider.

Who do YOU think would be a better President,Trump,or whatever corrupt usual suspect the Dims push forward as our next Maximum Leader?

And do NOT whine about how "Trump won't be able to get anything done" because the alternative will be a Dim President dedicated to destroying America and developing a official "One Party Nation."

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump was a poison pill from the beginning. Like Bush brought us Obama, Trump brought us Biden.

Coordinated, targeted election and voter fraud brought you Joe Biden.

[roamer_1]

Who do YOU think would be a better President,Trump,or whatever corrupt usual suspect the Dims push forward as our next Maximum Leader?

@sneakypete

Howabout NEITHER?

[sneakypete]

@sneakypete

Howabout NEITHER?

@roamer_1

You can't possibly be supporting anarchy.

[roamer_1]

@roamer_1

You can't possibly be supporting anarchy.

@sneakypete

Nope. But I sure as hell won't vote for big government... Especially from the right... No matter what.

Which puts me solidly in the 'Neither' box.

Neither one would be good for us, not to mention whether either is better. There is no better in that choice.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@ScottinVA

If what you wrote is true,that will mean Trump lost because alleged Republicans would rather see a Dim in the WH than a registered Republican outsider.

Who do YOU think would be a better President,Trump,or whatever corrupt usual suspect the Dims push forward as our next Maximum Leader?

And do NOT whine about how "Trump won't be able to get anything done" because the alternative will be a Dim President dedicated to destroying America and developing a official "One Party Nation."

I think Trump's policy proposals would be somewhat less bad than Biden's.   I do very strongly disfavor Trump's policy on Ukraine, however, and that's a big deal for me.  Him being perfectly willing to abandon Ukraine to Russia is bad enough on it's own, but it really makes me wonder what else he'd do in terms of foreign policy.  Very clear to me that he sees the world very differently from how I see it.  I just can't get passed that.

Other than Trump having an unacceptable position on Ukraine, there are two other problems

The first problem is that while the GOP in Congress would obstruct Biden as much as possible, they can't/won't do the same to some of Trump's wackier ideas.  So I think some bad Trump ideas might get implemented.

The bigger issue is that I think Trump as President would set us up to get demolished in the 2026 midterms and 2028 Presidential election, whereas I think we'd be in a great position to make real gains in 2026 and 2028 if a Democrat was in office. And as long as we have enough in Congress to prevent that Democrat from doing a lot of damage, that might be the best result.

[ScottinVA]

@ScottinVA

If what you wrote is true,that will mean Trump lost because alleged Republicans would rather see a Dim in the WH than a registered Republican outsider.

Who do YOU think would be a better President,Trump,or whatever corrupt usual suspect the Dims push forward as our next Maximum Leader?

And do NOT whine about how "Trump won't be able to get anything done" because the alternative will be a Dim President dedicated to destroying America and developing a official "One Party Nation."

Yes.  The “Trump or Death” crowd is perfectly fine with losing with Trump vs winning with anyone else.  Look at the comments of his backers.  Further, this has nothing to do with his ability to get anything done, because he will not return to the WH.  That said, I’ll go through the motion of supporting him if he’s the nominee, because I detest the dems, but to think he’s going to win back those 2016 swing states is folly.  One issue stands out for me: as a supporter of Ukraine’s freedom, I will never support Trump’s position of rewarding Russian aggression, and to codify Russian occupation of any square inch of Ukraine is unacceptable.  Reagan never gave an inch vs the Soviets in Afghanistan, and the policy of any US President should be the same vis-a-vis Ukraine.  That neo-Fascist in the Kremlin should be resisted at every turn.

As for who I would like to see as the nominee, any of the current crop of candidates, except for his former VP, Mike Pence, the milquetoast Asa Hutchinson and “Butterbean” Christie would be acceptable, any one of the others will be less a drag on the GOP downticket races than Trump.  Trump is  damaged goods and his presence will be a millstone around other candidates, just as he was in 2022 with his endorsements.  Additionally.. he’ll be 78 next year… some youth on the scene will be good for the country.

[LMAO]

@ScottinVA

If what you wrote is true,that will mean Trump lost because alleged Republicans would rather see a Dim in the WH than a registered Republican outsider.

Who do YOU think would be a better President,Trump,or whatever corrupt usual suspect the Dims push forward as our next Maximum Leader?

And do NOT whine about how "Trump won't be able to get anything done" because the alternative will be a Dim President dedicated to destroying America and developing a official "One Party Nation."

So…

If Ron DeSantis ends up being the nominee, you’ve decided you would vote for him, perhaps reluctantly, instead of a Democrat as you said you would in the past?

[sneakypete]

I think Trump's policy proposals would be somewhat less bad than Biden's.  I do very strongly disfavor Trump's policy on Ukraine, however, and that's a big deal for me. Him being perfectly willing to abandon Ukraine to Russia is bad enough on it's own, but it really makes me wonder what else he'd do in terms of foreign policy.  Very clear to me that he sees the world very differently from how I see it.  I just can't get passed that.

Other than Trump having an unacceptable position on Ukraine, there are two other problems

The first problem is that while the GOP in Congress would obstruct Biden as much as possible, they can't/won't do the same to some of Trump's wackier ideas.  So I think some bad Trump ideas might get implemented.

The bigger issue is that I think Trump as President would set us up to get demolished in the 2026 midterms and 2028 Presidential election, whereas I think we'd be in a great position to make real gains in 2026 and 2028 if a Democrat was in office. And as long as we have enough in Congress to prevent that Democrat from doing a lot of damage, that might be the best result.

@Maj. Bill Martin

I'm with ya on the quote in bold. Not so much with the other two objections. First of all,I suspect a percentage of the professional alleged Republican Pols will vote with the Dims on most issues to try to insure no other "outsider" gets elected. I see this as both good AND bad. Bad because some of those bills would be important bills for America,and good because their votes will expose them for all time as the self-serving weasels they are.

The US House and Senate are NOT supposed to be a "Good Old Boys  Club,where they trade votes for favors and ALWAYS do their best to protect each other. It is supposed to be a place where elected officials who truly care about the survival of America as a free nation get together and try to do what is best for America,not them or their families.

Not too worried about the mid-terms or the future because unless we elect an outsider who is willing to "throw verbal and legislative bombs in order to get America back on track,there probably won't be any future elections settled by "the people" unless your definition of "the people" is "globalist billionaires".

[Kamaji]

Yes.  The “Trump or Death” crowd is perfectly fine with losing with Trump vs winning with anyone else.  Look at the comments of his backers.  Further, this has nothing to do with his ability to get anything done, because he will not return to the WH.  That said, I’ll go through the motion of supporting him if he’s the nominee, because I detest the dems, but to think he’s going to win back those 2016 swing states is folly.  One issue stands out for me: as a supporter of Ukraine’s freedom, I will never support Trump’s position of rewarding Russian aggression, and to codify Russian occupation of any square inch of Ukraine is unacceptable.  Reagan never gave an inch vs the Soviets in Afghanistan, and the policy of any US President should be the same vis-a-vis Ukraine.  That neo-Fascist in the Kremlin should be resisted at every turn.

As for who I would like to see as the nominee, any of the current crop of candidates, except for his former VP, Mike Pence, the milquetoast Asa Hutchinson and “Butterbean” Christie would be acceptable, any one of the others will be less a drag on the GOP downticket races than Trump.  Trump is  damaged goods and his presence will be a millstone around other candidates, just as he was in 2022 with his endorsements.  Additionally.. he’ll be 78 next year… some youth on the scene will be good for the country.