Why Russia’s Instability Could Throw Off Xi Jinping’s Taiwan Invasion TimelineFighting the wrong war at the wrong time may end up costing Xi’s control of power rather than achieving historic glory for himself and China.BY: HELEN RALEIGH
JUNE 30, 2023
Russia was apparently on the brink of civil war last weekend as the Wagner Group, a paramilitary force, marched toward Moscow.
A bloody showdown between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin — and between Russia’s military and the mercenaries — was eventually avoided after Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator and Putin ally, reportedly brokered a truce. This dramatic event will affect not only Putin and Russia but also some of Putin’s allies, especially China.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced their alliance “without limit” by issuing a defiant joint statement before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games.
Xi and Putin found a kindred spirit in each other: Both are hostile to liberal democratic values. Both rule their nations with iron fists and have no problem exporting their weapons and surveillance technologies to support other oppressive regimes. Both like to present themselves domestically and internationally as strongmen and unapologetic nationalists. And both justify their territorial expansion through military conquest as necessary to return their nations to historic glories. Putin insists Ukraine has always been part of Russia, and Xi claims Taiwan is a province of China.
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Xi might have initially regarded the Russia-Ukraine War as a strategic window to speed up his conquest of Taiwan. Yet, the Wagner group debacle in Russia last weekend might compel Xi to reconsider his timing of the Taiwan campaign.
The Wagner group’s mutiny and Putin’s flip-flop messaging about whether Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has committed any crime shattered Putin’s strong-man image. It exposed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has weakened Putin and Russia’s military. Even some Russian elites agreed that Putin looked weaker after the Wagner rebellion and that Russia might be ready for a “big change” in its top leadership.
The event in Russia will likely affect Xi in several ways. The longer the Russia-Ukraine War drags on, the weaker Putin and Russia get, and the more foolish and riskier Xi’s “no limits” alliance with Putin seems.
As Wall Street Journal columnist Gerard Baker wrote, “It is clearer than ever that Xi Jinping has shackled himself to a twitching corpse, one booby-trapped with nuclear weapons but a dead weight all the same.” Xi must be concerned that his alliance with Putin is becoming a liability that his domestic political rivals may exploit while raising doubts about his leadership even among his allies.
The Russian army’s poor performance in Ukraine probably also prompted Xi to be concerned about the Chinese military’s readiness. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) hasn’t been battle-tested for over four decades. The last time the PLA fought a major war was against Vietnam in 1979, and the PLA was humiliated by its much smaller rival.
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Source:
https://thefederalist.com/2023/06/30/why-russias-instability-could-throw-off-xi-jinpings-taiwan-invasion-timeline/
