Not Worth the Money – The Costs and Benefits Of Global Climate Policies
JUNE 21, 2023 / / 1 COMMENT
Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2023. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.
Global warming has become a priority problem across much of the world, with many countries committing to the political target of limiting global temperature rises to no more than 1.5 degrees C. over those that prevailed in the pre-industrial era. This is partly because climate impacts have been presented repeatedly by the media and governments as catastrophic, leading many people to believe that unmitigated climate change is likely to lead to devastated lives, collapsing societies, and even human extinction.
In fact, these claims of devastation are almost entirely unwarranted and can lead to wasteful climate policies in which money is spent and decisions are made driven by fear and panic. Consequently, before one can have an intelligent discussion of climate policy, one must first address the misplaced concerns about devastating impacts from climate change.
Climate modelers attempt to predict the trends in global greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of these trends on the concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalents in the atmosphere, the consequent changes in average global temperatures and climate and then the effects of those changes on the world’s economy and society, as measured by changes in gross domestic product (i.e. income).
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change models use a range of scenarios for future emissions growth, based on different assumptions about future trends in population and economic growth, technological change, and emissions. This is a source of considerable controversy, as the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), now considered implausible, is treated as though it were the “business -as-usual” or most likely, case and it is given the most prominent coverage in UN public documents. It gives virtually no attention to the expected growth in global income to 2100. By then, global income is projected to increase by 4.5 times from today’s level. With climate damages deducted, income levels would be only 4.3 times its 2020 level, but much improved.
https://blog.friendsofscience.org/2023/06/21/not-worth-the-money-the-costs-and-benefits-of-global-climate-policies/
