There Are Some Serious Problems With These Polls Right Now

[Kamaji]

There Are Some Serious Problems With These Polls Right Now

Scott Morefield
June 18, 2023

There's no doubt that former President Donald Trump is leading in GOP primary polling. He's been running for months, one felony indictment after another keeps drawing attention and making him a martyr, and he's running against about 98 other candidates, none of whom are former presidents with a penchant for sucking all the air out of every room they enter.

In a steady second sits Trump's primary challenger, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. However, recent polling trumpeted by the Trump camp shows the former president's lead over his main competition growing, as well as a competitive general election race between Trump and Biden. The trumpeting seems aimed to present an air of inevitability like this is some sort of coronation instead of a contest. The goal, presumably, seems to be to get everyone to 'rally around Trump' and ignore everyone else based on the belief that he will beat DeSantis and that he can beat Biden.

Consider Harvard Harris, run by former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn. Recent results from this polling outfit show Trump with seemingly insurmountable leads in the GOP primary. They also show the former president competitive in a general election race.

*  *  *

Look under the hood, and other polls, especially ones attempting to predict the general election, display similar weirdness:

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When it comes to polling, especially this early in a presidential election, always look at the crosstabs and demographic sampling and compare those with complex data from actual past elections. For example, if no Republican has won the women's vote in decades, do you really think Donald Trump is going to be the one to break the cycle?

*  *  *

Source:  https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scottmorefield/2023/06/18/there-are-some-serious-problems-with-these-polls-right-now-n2624649

[Bigun]

Polls are commissioned by people and the results generally reflect what those who commission them expect.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Maybe. Anecdotally, women are the still the ones who buy most groceries.

[Wingnut]

I accidently answered a poll call the other day while driving.  So with nothing better to do I took their questions.  It was a Presidential Preference poll.  Bottom line, it asked in the primary.... if it were held today would you vote Trump or DeSantis.  I lied and said Trump.

[LMAO]

Part of the problem with any polls  right now is the campaign season is still in it’s infancy

Although, as of now, I do believe Trump will be the nominee, and he will go on to lose the general election. The hope if that happens is that there’s not a bunch of Trump backed candidates running for the House and Senate, thereby handing the Democrats a full governing majority after 2024.

The one bright spot for the Senate is Democrats have more seats to defend and it would just take just a few Republican pick ups to flip that

[Right_in_Virginia]

Maybe.  But on the whole, the polls consistently show that DeSantis is not catching fire with the voters and those that support Trump are sticking with him like glue.

Polls are also consistently showing Trump is very competitive against Biden with the trend showing Trump is overtaking him.

[Idiot]

Maybe.  But on the whole, the polls consistently show that DeSantis is not catching fire with the voters and those that support Trump are sticking with him like glue.

Polls are also consistently showing Trump is very competitive against Biden with the trend showing Trump is overtaking him.

And yet TRUMP CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION.  Let that sink in.

[LMAO]

And yet TRUMP CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION.  Let that sink in.

They will point to 2016 as an example of Trump being able to win. Hillary voters fell into the assumption that Hillary had it in the bag so a lot of them stayed home, a mistake they didn’t make anymore.

Also, Trump only got a plurality of votes, he did not win the popular vote, and it was the electoral college that bailed him out

Right now the polls reflect a very deep disgust with Biden. But we don’t elect our presidents through a national popular vote. They’re elected state by state. The electoral map is hostile for Republicans, no matter who the nominee is

[sneakypete]

And yet TRUMP CAN'T POSSIBLY WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION.  Let that sink in.

@Jack Russell

According to who,you  and  your friends?

[sneakypete]

They will point to 2016 as an example of Trump being able to win. Hillary voters fell into the assumption that Hillary had it in the bag so a lot of them stayed home, a mistake they didn’t make anymore.

Also, Trump only got a plurality of votes, he did not win the popular vote, and it was the electoral college that bailed him out

Right now the polls reflect a very deep disgust with Biden. But we don’t elect our presidents through a national popular vote. They’re elected state by state. The electoral map is hostile for Republicans, no matter who the nominee is

@LMAO

True,and the ONLY thing that can  change that around is to convince the people so disgusted with  politics that they  need to show up and vote. Which will be a hard uphill climb because they are disgusted with today's politics and politicians.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Polls this early are garbage, either way, especially with Trump's legal issues.  If the facts that come out as the cases progress make him look good, he'll likely stay on top.  If not...then it's a different ball game.

There is also the issue of whether Biden is actually going go be the Dems 2024 nominee.  Because if he drops out or is replaced, that probably helps the Dems and hurts Trump.

[LMAO]

We may see similar elections as we did during the Obama era.

Despite Barack Obama’s average low job approval rating and people not happy with the direction of the country, he still won reelection in 2012. However, after he left office in 2017, Republicans held most of the governorships, they increased their numbers in statehouses, and had a majority in both houses of Congress.

And we may just have to accept that that may be the case for quite a while

[sneakypete]

Polls this early are garbage, either way, especially with Trump's legal issues.  If the facts that come out as the cases progress make him look good, he'll likely stay on top.  If not...then it's a different ball game.

There is also the issue of whether Biden is actually going go be the Dems 2024 nominee.  Because if he drops out or is replaced, that probably helps the Dems and hurts Trump.

@Maj. Bill Martin

Biden is going to drop out due to "Health Issues" so late in the campaign that it will be hard for the alleged Republicans to mount a campaign against him/her/multiple choice.

Biden is nothing more than a highly paid "blocking dummy" for the DNC.

And "No,I do NOT see his VP being allowed to take over his campaign and run in his place."

I see a whole new ticket emerging.

[massadvj]

Dethroning Trump was always going to be an uphill battle. It is not impossible for Trump to win in the general election, just highly unlikely. I think it is depressing for partisans on both sides right now, looking at the seeming inevitability of what the primaries will yield. At least our side does not have a bunch of gutless cowards afraid to take on the standard-bearer. 

[corbe]

   Polls this far out of the election are as worthless as the polls in early Nov 16 that showed hellary in a landslide. 
   Meaning they are all useless and a tool of the media.

[DCPatriot]

Dethroning Trump was always going to be an uphill battle. It is not impossible for Trump to win in the general election, just highly unlikely. I think it is depressing for partisans on both sides right now, looking at the seeming inevitability of what the primaries will yield. At least our side does not have a bunch of gutless cowards afraid to take on the standard-bearer.

@massadvj

Maybe I've been streaming too many 'action' movies lately.

“The president has put in place an organization that contains a kind of database that no one has ever seen before in life that’s going to be very, very powerful... And that database will have information about everything on every individual in ways that it’s never been done before. He’s been very smart,” Waters said of Obama. “I mean it’s very powerful what he’s leaving in place.”

― Maxine Waters


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2ohTksHIiI

It's not a stretch at all to see why nobody has even suggested challenging Biden.

[Kamaji]

So disgusted voters need to show up to vote for a disgusting candidate (Trump).  Uh huh

[sneakypete]

So disgusted voters need to show up to vote for a disgusting candidate (Trump).  Uh huh

@Jack Russell

Don't worry. I didn't expect you to understand it.

[corbe]

   I want to give a Shoutout here to the Briefers, who, all along knew that Trump wasn't the answer, you know who you are.

[massadvj]

@massadvj

Maybe I've been streaming too many 'action' movies lately.

It would take at least 8 years of Republican administrations to undo what Obama put into place. He turned the entire federal government into a political patronage and enforcement arm of the Democratic Party.

[Right_in_Virginia]

It would take at least 8 years of Republican administrations to undo what Obama put into place. He turned the entire federal government into a political patronage and enforcement arm of the Democratic Party.

Disagree.  It will take one angry man with no looming reelection campaign who knows where the evidence is buried and who put it there to pull down the whole house of cards.


@massadvj

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Maj. Bill Martin

Biden is going to drop out due to "Health Issues" so late in the campaign that it will be hard for the alleged Republicans to mount a campaign against him/her/multiple choice.

Biden is nothing more than a highly paid "blocking dummy" for the DNC.

And "No,I do NOT see his VP being allowed to take over his campaign and run in his place."

I see a whole new ticket emerging.

@sneakypete

That may very well be exactly what happens.

Of course, trying to shunt aside the first female black VP completely may not sit too well with certain of their constituencies.  But they made that bed, so let them lie in it.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Nope. It will take one angry man with no looming reelection campaign who knows where the evidence is buried and who put it there.

If it's the guy you're probably thinking of, he couldn't find his big orange ass with both hands.  He's as clueless regarding how the government actually works as is Biden.  Maybe even more so, and I'm not even being facetious.  He's not just anti-intellectual.  He's anti-intelligence.

[Smokin Joe]

They will point to 2016 as an example of Trump being able to win. Hillary voters fell into the assumption that Hillary had it in the bag so a lot of them stayed home, a mistake they didn’t make anymore.

Also, Trump only got a plurality of votes, he did not win the popular vote, and it was the electoral college that bailed him out

Right now the polls reflect a very deep disgust with Biden. But we don’t elect our presidents through a national popular vote. They’re elected state by state. The electoral map is hostile for Republicans, no matter who the nominee is

With the fraud mechanisms not just still in place, but refined amidst claims of fraud allegedly being "debunked", and a real good handle on the point spread, ensuing GOP candidates will experience seamless and smooth losses to Democrats anywhere that there is any ability to claim the Democrat won in "an upset" or even "close contest".

While the polls don't set the point spread of actual votes, they do set the public's expectation of outcome, even down to establishing that those margins might be close.

[sneakypete]

It would take at least 8 years of Republican administrations to undo what Obama put into place. He turned the entire federal government into a political patronage and enforcement arm of the Democratic Party.

@massadvj

I am not even sure 8 years in a row is enough time to do more than just get things started.