Is the Arctic September sea ice doomed to disappear in the 2030’s?
Posted on June 15, 2023 by curryja | 7 Comments
by Frank Bosse
Short answer: NO
A recent paper Kim et al. (2023), hereafter K23, got some media attention, e.g. this article at CNN: “The Arctic may be sea ice-free in summer by the 2030’s, new study warns.”
K23’s key conclusion: “Results indicate that the first sea ice-free September will occur as early as the 2030s–2050s irrespective of emission scenarios.“
How did the authors come to this conclusion? They used the CMIP6 Multi Model Mean (MMM)! In the methods section: “We use multi-model CMIP6 historical and DAMIP simulations performed under different climate forcing combinations…”
DAMIP: “The detection and attribution model intercomparison project (DAMIP v1. 0)”
This is the same approach described in this blogpost (for the case of the Antarctic overturning oscillation), with the same pitfalls as described by Gavin Schmidt in 2021.
https://judithcurry.com/2023/06/15/is-the-arctic-september-sea-ice-doomed-to-disappear-in-the-2030s/
