Wagner boss denies accusations he could stage coup in Russia - ISW

[rangerrebew]

 
Wagner boss denies accusations he could stage coup in Russia - ISW
 
By Joshua Askew  •  Updated: 30/05/2023 - 14:27

Yevgeny Prigozhin argued his mercenary force does not have the personnel needed to topple the Kremlin.

The leader of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has denied accusations they could stage a military coup against the Kremlin, according to the Insitute for the Study of War (ISW).

The US-based think tank reported Yevgeny Prigozhin argued his mercenary force could not topple the Kremlin because it lacked the manpower, following a claim by former Russian military commander Igor Girkin it wanted to do so.

Prigozhin and the Wagner group he founded have gained notoriety fighting in Ukraine, especially amid the bloody battle for Bakhmut.

The outspoken mercenary leader has openly criticised the Russian military and Kremlin over its campaign, with some suggesting he is eyeing up political power.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/30/wagner-boss-denies-group-could-stage-coup-isw

[rangerrebew]

Brandon needs to pour some troops into Moscow to make sure his ally, Putin, keeps control.

[Free Vulcan]

We are going to keep jacking around with Russia, and one day they're going to swipe back, and it might be dang ugly.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Wagner made their bones fighting in Syria on behalf of Bashar al-Assad.

... this how so many Russians end up falling off roofs and balconies.

[Kamaji]

Reading between the lines:  Wagner Group does, in fact, believe it has the wherewithal to stage a coup in Russia, and is planning for it, but now is not the opportune time.

[kevindavis007]

We are going to keep jacking around with Russia, and one day they're going to swipe back, and it might be dang ugly.

Sorry, but the Russian Bear is very very weak right now.

[kevindavis007]

Reading between the lines:  Wagner Group does, in fact, believe it has the wherewithal to stage a coup in Russia, and is planning for it, but now is not the opportune time.

Bingo...


 

[Free Vulcan]

Sorry, but the Russian Bear is very very weak right now.

In cartoon thinking, yes that's true.

[Kamaji]

In cartoon thinking, yes that's true.

In real thinking, too.

I came across this on another forum.  The data is apparently from Janes:

According to janes, the Russians have lost the majority of their active tanks. Which of course are—or were—the best tanks available to them: roughly 28 T-90s, about 1070 T-72B3s, and about 524 T-80BVs. Russia has the capacity to build just 200 new tanks a year. So what’s left now mostly are tanks that, before the war, were moldering in long-term storage. Older T-72s from the 1970s. 1960s-vintage T-62s. Even T-55s and T-54s from the 1950s.

There were perhaps 10,000 old tanks in storage in Russia before the war. Many long ago had rusted away. No one outside of the Kremlin knows for sure how many of the 10,000 are recoverable. Half? A third? In any event, the Russians can’t just haul a 1958-vintage T-55 from the 1295th Central Tank Reserve and Storage Base in eastern Russia and ship it to the Ukraine front as is. Even if the tank’s 800-horsepower diesel engine is intact, it will need stripping and rebuilding, and all new seals and gaskets. The tank also would need new radios and machine guns and new day-night optics to replace sights that were obsolete 40 years ago.


Russian industry struggles to produce high-grade optics. Along with a shortage of good ball-bearings, a shortage of modern sights is the major bottleneck preventing them new tanks and upgrading old tanks. (And id like to point out the Nazis had exactly the same problem, hence why we bombed the bleep out the Balls Bearing Factory at Schweinfurt, even though the USAAF came sadly unstuck trying to do the same thing. Ball bearings are absolutely critical for modern warfare)

Ukrainian started with about 1000 tanks, according to Oryx about 550 have been knocked out or captured. What’s different about Ukraine’s losses is that it, unlike Russia, can tap large domestic reserves as well as several outside sources of replacement tanks. Ukraine’s foreign allies have pledged to the war effort nearly 800 tanks: enough to make good 15 months of losses and simultaneously equip several newly-established brigades.

Most of Ukraine’s replacement tanks are Soviet-style T-72s that might be a generation less sophisticated than the best Russian T-90s are. But more than a hundred are German-made Leopard 1s; 85 are newer Leopard 2s. The United Kingdom has donated 14 Challenger 2s. The United States is preparing 31 M-1A1s.

The point is that Ukraine not only can replace any tanks it loses; it can acquire better tanks as replacements. Unless and until Russia starts importing tanks from, say, Iran or North Korea, the best it can do is build a few new T-90s and T-72B3s while scraping the rust off a whole lot of obsolete T-62s and T-55s.

Basically whilst the Ukrainian Tank tech level is gradually increasing, the Russian tank tech level is slowly winding back to WW2. And whats worse, seven of the nine "Weapons and Equipment Storage Bases" are in Asia, and are to be mobilized into motor rifle brigades with reserve personnel which will reportedly take 3-6 months. The new Russian 90th Guards Tank Division in Brovary are reportedly using Cold War-era T-72A/AVs (produced in 1981-84).


Satellite images from the city of Arsenyev, where the 1295th Central Tank Reserve and Storage Base is located are where most of the old T-54s are stored, show at least 191 tanks (T-55's) observed leaving the base on trains from July to October. This was reported by a group of investigators, the Conflict Intelligence Team.

It probably took that long for the WD40 to work the rust loose..... (maybe we should watch the sales figures of the Rocket Chemical Company, who make WD40, and look for spikes in WD40 export sales...)

Source:  https://thepoliticsforums.com/threads/208736-Ukraine-New-Information-Source

The poster also puts up the following figures:

LOSSES TOTALS
All types of flying vehicles
Russia - 418, of which: destroyed: 286, damaged: 17, captured: 115
Ukraine - 217, of which: destroyed: 174, damaged: 2, captured: 42

Military Vehicles of all types
Russia - 10468, of which: destroyed: 6897, damaged: 352, abandoned: 399, captured: 2820
Ukraine - 3451, of which: destroyed: 2249, damaged: 214, abandoned: 94, captured: 894

Bear in mind these are underestimates because Oryx only documents with a photo or valid serial number. Even so, the claim russia is suffering massive losses appear to be correct

Source:  https://thepoliticsforums.com/threads/208736-Ukraine-New-Information-Source?p=3320085&viewfull=1#post3320085