Debunking the ‘Trump can’t win the general’ Myth

[mystery-ak]

May 16, 2023
Debunking the ‘Trump can’t win the general’ Myth
By Matt Kane

As the presidential primary season commences, many career politicians, “experts,” and news outlets have already made one thing abundantly clear.  “While Donald Trump might win the nomination, he has no path to win the general election” they say, or something to that affect.  Some suggest that even Trump and his supporters secretly know this.  These are bold statements for anybody to make so early in a primary cycle, let alone people who have decades of political experience.  The average person could easily read those quotes attached to prominent names and assume they must be true.  But as we have seen time and again during the Trump era, when so many predict his demise, the opposite often occurs.

There are a few key elements to examine when contemplating potential election outcomes.  Despite all the intricate dialogue that floods the airwaves during U.S. elections, it’s not rocket science.  Measuring swing states, overall voter enthusiasm, and primary challenges is the blueprint to follow.

Every election America focuses on a handful of states that are expected to swing the results in one’s favor.  For example, the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections saw Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin play a pivotal role in the outcomes.  Trump’s better-than-experts-expected performance in those states in 2016 enabled him to secure the presidency.  Trump’s 2020 margins were on an even better trajectory in most of those states throughout election night in 2020 until unprecedented events denied him a second consecutive term.  Those were the only five states that changed from 2016.

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/debunking_the_trump_cant_win_the_general_myth.html

[Bigun]

I greatly fear that NO republican candidate will ever win another general election. Their mechanisms are firmly in place now.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

May 16, 2023
Debunking the ‘Trump can’t win the general’ Myth
By Matt Kane

As the presidential primary season commences, many career politicians, “experts,” and news outlets have already made one thing abundantly clear.  “While Donald Trump might win the nomination, he has no path to win the general election” they say, or something to that affect.  Some suggest that even Trump and his supporters secretly know this.  These are bold statements for anybody to make so early in a primary cycle, let alone people who have decades of political experience.  The average person could easily read those quotes attached to prominent names and assume they must be true.  But as we have seen time and again during the Trump era, when so many predict his demise, the opposite often occurs.

There are a few key elements to examine when contemplating potential election outcomes.  Despite all the intricate dialogue that floods the airwaves during U.S. elections, it’s not rocket science.  Measuring swing states, overall voter enthusiasm, and primary challenges is the blueprint to follow.

Every election America focuses on a handful of states that are expected to swing the results in one’s favor.  For example, the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections saw Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin play a pivotal role in the outcomes.  Trump’s better-than-experts-expected performance in those states in 2016 enabled him to secure the presidency.  Trump’s 2020 margins were on an even better trajectory in most of those states throughout election night in 2020 until unprecedented events denied him a second consecutive term.  Those were the only five states that changed from 2016.

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/debunking_the_trump_cant_win_the_general_myth.html

He has a chance if Biden is the nominee, if nothing gets worse for Trump legally, and if Biden's popularity doesn't improve for some reason.  One thing that could help Biden's popularity against Trump in particular is if the war in Ukraine resolves with Ukraine more or less prevailing.  If that happens, Trump's position on Ukraine likely will be used against him with some success.

[roamer_1]

Given a reasonable challenger, I don't believe he'll make it past the primary.

[Fishrrman]

Bigun observes (thoughtfully):
"I greatly fear that NO republican candidate will ever win another general election. Their mechanisms are firmly in place now."

Your fears are based in reality.

For years now, I've been posting about The Party's "underground election apparatus", which is now augmented by an overt, "above-ground" apparatus as well (for example, such things as ranked-choice voting and mail-in ballots, provisional ballots, among others).

You can find one of my first posts about it, right here (from 2020):
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,419737.msg2325220.html#msg2325220

Since 2020 we have seen that it can work quite well when applied in appropriate electoral environments (such as the swing states that NO Republican can be elected without winning).

Since the 2020 elections, little-to-nothing has been done in these states to expose or thwart the apparatus:
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Georgia

To address the article title directly:
If ANY Republican candidate has the ability to defeat the apparatus, it's Mr. Trump. No one else will come close.

It was that way in 2016.
It was that way again in 2020.
And so it will be in 2024.

This DOES NOT mean Mr. Trump is favored to win.
NO. I predict his chances to be no better than 50-50, at best.
"The apparatus" stands in his way, as well.

But again, if anyone on our side has a chance to overcome it, it's him.