Ukraine 4

[Hoodat]

"Here's what we know.

More like "Here's the bullshit we are being fed".  If Russia had any T-14s in Ukraine, they would be smoldering ruins by now.  Ukraine would have hit them directly on the trailers they would have been towed around on, because there is no way they could have been driven anywhere under their own power without an engine burning out.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

More like "Here's the bullshit we are being fed".  If Russia had any T-14s in Ukraine, they would be smoldering ruins by now.  Ukraine would have hit them directly on the trailers they would have been towed around on, because there is no way they could have been driven anywhere under their own power without an engine burning out.

Yup.  The problem is that the entire tank was designed around a particular engine that the Russians have never gotten to work correctly.  Normally, you'd just put a different engine in it, but nothing else they've got would fit because, again, the tank was designed around an engine with very specific dimensions.

Just found an article that describes.some.of the problems with it.  One thing I didn't know was that they never had a T-14 assembly line, which meant they were all piece-built like a Rolls-Royce.  At this point, it's basically the chupacabra of tanks.

[Smokin Joe]

Ukraine is "oil rich"? Got data to support that statement?

Per this webpage, https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ukraine-oil/ , in 2016 Ukraine's oil consumption was nearly 5 times its production. Also in that data, Ukraine's 2016 oil production was 61st out of 127 countries for which the site has production data.

But looking at the data here, https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/ , Russia is the third highest oil producer in the world.

While not as Oil rich as some might say, 87% of Ukraine's oil and gas production just happened to be in the Donbas.

[Timber Rattler]

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.

The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.

As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.

American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.

Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.

Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.

In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

EXCERPT

This story irks me...it's pretty easy to give advice like that when it's the Ukrainians who have to do the bleeding and sacrificing, especially since those U.S. recommendations undoubtedly stem from the results of computer simulations and wargaming.  I fully understand the Ukrainians' need to conserve their manpower and limited resources despite what Milley and EURCOM want, because it is more convenient for American political interests.  And plus, they have to keep an eye out on what the Russians may try to do in the north and northeast, when Wagner was sent to Belarus and the latest draft of mobiiki were jammed into Lohansk Oblast.  The Ukrainians know their own country and what will work and won't work, so I say let them fight their own battles using their own strategies, with some gentle intelligence and SpecOp help from the West when asked for.

[PeteS in CA]

While not as Oil rich as some might say, 87% of Ukraine's oil and gas production just happened to be in the Donbas.

The Donets Basin is currently occupied by Russia. So while Ukraine was able to supply a bit over 1/5 of its oil needs in 2016 - i.e. far from "oil rich" - Ukraine's oil production has been vastly reduced, making it all the farther from "oil rich".

[Kamaji]

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/22/us/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war.html

EXCERPT

This story irks me...it's pretty easy to give advice like that when it's the Ukrainians who have to do the bleeding and sacrificing, especially since those U.S. recommendations undoubtedly stem from the results of computer simulations and wargaming.  I fully understand the Ukrainians' need to conserve their manpower and limited resources despite what Milley and EURCOM want, because it is more convenient for American political interests.  And plus, they have to keep an eye out on what the Russians may try to do in the north and northeast, when Wagner was sent to Belarus and the latest draft of mobiiki were jammed into Lohansk Oblast.  The Ukrainians know their own country and what will work and won't work, so I say let them fight their own battles using their own strategies, with some gentle intelligence and SpecOp help from the West when asked for.

[PeteS in CA]

Yet, strangely - if one believes the NYT article - the Ukrainians are advancing in two areas of the Melitopol-Mariupol front. Ukraine has broken through the Russians' first line of defense and is rolling up the forces along that line with flank attacks. I haven't seen news about it in a day or two, so they may also be making progress into the Russians' second defensive line.

Maybe the Ukrainians are giving US officials news a bit delayed, not trusting them to know not to blab. As for Bakhmut, progress there threatens significant Russian occupied cities and force the Russians to keep their troops in that area well away from the Melitopol-Mariupol front.

[DB]

Yet, strangely - if one believes the NYT article - the Ukrainians are advancing in two areas of the Melitopol-Mariupol front. Ukraine has broken through the Russians' first line of defense and is rolling up the forces along that line with flank attacks. I haven't seen news about it in a day or two, so they may also be making progress into the Russians' second defensive line.

Maybe the Ukrainians are giving US officials news a bit delayed, not trusting them to know not to blab. As for Bakhmut, progress there threatens significant Russian occupied cities and force the Russians to keep their troops in that area well away from the Melitopol-Mariupol front.

It is also possible this is all just a smoke screen to hide or mislead the Russians to what is actually going on. Who knows.

[Timber Rattler]

Putin Orders Wagner Fighters to Sign Oath of Allegiance After Prigozhin's Demise

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-08-25/kremlin-calls-accusations-it-killed-wagner-boss-prigozhin-an-absolute-lie

President Vladimir Putin has ordered Wagner fighters to sign an oath of allegiance to the Russian state after a deadly plane crash believed to have killed Yevgeny Prigozhin, the volatile chief of the mercenary group.

Putin signed the decree bringing in the change with immediate effect on Friday after the Kremlin said that Western suggestions that Prigozhin had been killed on its orders were an "absolute lie". The Kremlin declined to definitively confirm his death, citing the need to wait for test results.

Russia's aviation authority has said that Prigozhin was on board a private jet which crashed on Wednesday evening northwest of Moscow with no survivors exactly two months after he led a failed mutiny against army chiefs.

President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to the families of those killed in the crash on Thursday and spoke of Prigozhin in the past tense.

He cited "preliminary information" as indicating that Prigozhin and his top Wagner associates had all been killed and, while praising Prigozhin, said he had also made some "serious mistakes."

Putin's introduction of a mandatory oath for employees of Wagner and other private military contractors was a clear move to bring such groups under tighter state control.

The decree, published on the Kremlin website, obliges anyone carrying out work on behalf of the military or supporting what Moscow calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine to swear a formal oath of allegiance to Russia.

Described in the decree as a step to forge the spiritual and moral foundations of the defence of Russia, the wording of the oath includes a line in which those who take it promise to strictly follow the orders of commanders and senior leaders.

EXCERPT

That didn't take long.

[GtHawk]

Ukraine is "oil rich"? Got data to support that statement?

Per this webpage, https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ukraine-oil/ , in 2016 Ukraine's oil consumption was nearly 5 times its production. Also in that data, Ukraine's 2016 oil production was 61st out of 127 countries for which the site has production data.

But looking at the data here, https://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-production-by-country/ , Russia is the third highest oil producer in the world.

@PeteS in CA
I freely acknowledge my error in the oil rich comment, I surely misread something about that in the past, as far as the rest no, I don't believe Americans should be paying for any rebuilding.

[240B]

[240B]

Discovered on the wall of Prigozhin's estate.

[Hoodat]

Russians retreating near Novoprokopivka:

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/161pqb1/the_russian_invaders_had_no_alternative_but_to/

[Hoodat]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1695490333209919871

[Hoodat]

Ukraine 30th Sep Mech Brigade

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1624i3d/a_pair_of_ukrainian_tanks_from_the_30th_separate/

[Hoodat]

More 30th Mech Brigade

from r/UkraineWarVideoReport

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1604vqs/ukrainian_soldiers_of_the_30th_mechanized_brigade/

[Smokin Joe]

The Donets Basin is currently occupied by Russia. So while Ukraine was able to supply a bit over 1/5 of its oil needs in 2016 - i.e. far from "oil rich" - Ukraine's oil production has been vastly reduced, making it all the farther from "oil rich".

Play with the meaning of "rich" if you want to, but NINE TENTHS of their oil production comes from the oblasts Russia invaded. Russia was also pushing to land lock the rest of the country, which would have given Russia control over not only the ports and shipping, but any offshore reserves as well. This started as a resource grab.

[PeteS in CA]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1695490333209919871

 

The map on the right shows a couple of things. First, that little salient is about half way between the Russians' thoroughly penetrated first line of defense and the second line. Second, the salient is near a gap in the second line, which might set up simultaneous frontal and flank attacks on that end of the second line. If that happens and if it is successful, the Ukrainians could roll up the trenched of the second line, broadening their salient, making it resistant to being pinched off. And, of course, the Ukrainians would be 2 or 3 miles closer to the Melitopol-Mariupol shore, with just one prepared line of defense between.

[PeteS in CA]

Play with the meaning of "rich" if you want to, but NINE TENTHS of their oil production comes from the oblasts Russia invaded. Russia was also pushing to land lock the rest of the country, which would have given Russia control over not only the ports and shipping, but any offshore reserves as well. This started as a resource grab.

Who is playing word games? I pointed out that Ukraine consumed in 2016 almost five times as much oil as it produced. Therefore Ukraine was not "oil rich" before Russia invaded.

You pointed out that most Ukrainian oil is in the Donets Basin, and I added that Russia currently occupies that territory. That means that Ukraine is now far less "oil rich" than in 2016. Did you totally misunderstand my posts, @Smokin Joe? There's far more of industrial value in the Donets Basin than just oil, so Ukraine is trying to liberate their sovereign territory, not doing some sort of blood-for-oil thingy (not that anyone has posted that idea).

[Smokin Joe]

Who is playing word games? I pointed out that Ukraine consumed in 2016 almost five times as much oil as it produced. Therefore Ukraine was not "oil rich" before Russia invaded.

You pointed out that most Ukrainian oil is in the Donets Basin, and I added that Russia currently occupies that territory. That means that Ukraine is now far less "oil rich" than in 2016. Did you totally misunderstand my posts, @Smokin Joe? There's far more of industrial value in the Donets Basin than just oil, so Ukraine is trying to liberate their sovereign territory, not doing some sort of blood-for-oil thingy (not that anyone has posted that idea).

If you ever read any of my earlier posts on this topic, you would understand that yes, there is far more than oil there, as I have repeatedly pointed out. I am a geologist, and have likely a better understanding of the natural and (former) industrial resources of the region. I have said this war is not motivated by politics, but resources from the get-go.  And myabe I failed to communicate to YOU that these are the most oil rich areas of Ukraine. I never said they were Venezuela, ffs.

[Kamaji]

Russia deploys its best fighting unit to the front lines in desperate bid to halt Ukraine advance as counter-offensive achieves breakthrough

    Kyiv claims to have captured the southern city of Robotyne in its push south
    Reports suggest Russia has moved elite units to slow Ukraine's advance

By Chris Jewers
28 August 2023

Russia has deployed one of its most elite fighting units to the frontlines in a desperate bid to halt Ukraine's advance.

While Kyiv's counter-offensive has made slow progress since it was launched earlier this year, Ukraine reported a breakthrough on Monday saying its troops had liberated the southeastern settlement of Robotyne.

Its forces are now trying to push further south, likely with the ultimate goal of reaching the Sea of Azov to split Russia's 'land bridge' that connects the invading country's mainland to occupied Crimea, providing a vital supply route.

The Ukrainian military said last week that its forces had raised the national flag in the strategic settlement, but were still carrying out mopping-up operations.

In response, reports have said Moscow has deployed its 76th Guard Air Assault Division (GAAD) - sometimes described as Russia's best fighting unit - to the region, with elements being spotted near Robotyne last week, according to reports.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12452445/Russia-deploys-elite-unit-frontline-stop-counter-offensive-south-76th-Guard-Air-Assault-Division.html

[Kamaji]

Ukraine says it has liberated strategic southeastern settlement Robotyne

By Reuters   
August 28, 2023

Ukraine said on Monday its troops had liberated the southeastern settlement of Robotyne and were trying to push further south in their counteroffensive against Russian forces.

The Ukrainian military said last week that its forces had raised the national flag in the strategic settlement, but were still carrying out mopping-up operations.

Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defenses in the south and that they will now start advancing more quickly, a commander who led troops into Robotyne told Reuters last week.

“Robotyne has been liberated,” Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar was quoted as saying by the military.

The settlement is 10 km (six miles) south of the frontline town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region on an important road towards Tokmak, a Russian-occupied road and rail hub.

Tokmak’s capture would be a milestone as Ukrainian troops press southwards towards the Sea of Azov in a military drive that is intended to split Russian forces following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Maliar told Ukrainian television that Kyiv’s troops, who began their counteroffensive in early June, were now moving southeast of Robotyne and south of nearby Mala Tokmachka.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/08/28/ukraine-says-it-has-liberated-southeastern-settlement-robotyne/

[240B]

16 cardboard PPDS UAV attacked Kursk airfield, destroyed: 4 fighters SU-27/30, 1 MiG-29, 1 S-300 radar, 2 Pancyrs, only 4 UAVs were destroyed by air defense, they're extremely hard to detect on radar

[Kamaji]

16 cardboard PPDS UAV attacked Kursk airfield, destroyed: 4 fighters SU-27/30, 1 MiG-29, 1 S-300 radar, 2 Pancyrs, only 4 UAVs were destroyed by air defense, they're extremely hard to detect on radar

Sweet!  They're apparently using so-called Sypaq Corvo Precision Payload Delivery Systems; wiki page:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sypaq_Corvo_Precision_Payload_Delivery_System

[Kamaji]

Ukraine's troops pick off Putin's soldiers one-by-one in brutal close-quarters combat footage as Kyiv's counter-offensive makes more gains into Russia's Zaporizhzhia defences

    Ukraine confirmed on Monday that its armed forces had captured Robotyne
    It is the latest in a series of villages liberated as soldiers continue to push south

By Chris Jewers
29 August 2023

Ukraine's forces have pushed deeper into Russian defensive lines in the country's south, Kyiv said today, as footage emerged of intense close-quarters combat between Ukraine's armed forces and Moscow's invading infantrymen.

Kyiv launched a grinding counteroffensive in June after stockpiling Western-supplied weapons and building up assault battalions. Unlike two rapid assaults last summer, Ukraine's armies have made slow progress through dense defences and minefields.

Nevertheless, gains have been made, and on Monday Kyiv confirmed the Armed Forces of Ukraine had liberated the village of Robotyne on the southern front - the latest in a series of villages liberated as Ukraine pushes towards the Sea of Azov.

As Ukraine has stepped up its assault, Russia has stepped up its shelling. On Tuesday, Kyiv ordered the evacuation of children from five towns in the region.

Speaking on Ukrainian television, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that the evacuation of children from the Vasylivskyi and Pologivskyi districts is now mandatory. Around 50 children are still though to be living in the districts.

This came as footage was released showing brutal, close-quarters fighting between Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, bringing home the reality of a war that is nearing its 19th month and showing no sign of ending.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12456657/Ukraine-troops-make-gains-Robotyne-Zaporizhzhia-counteroffensive.html