2023 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?

Anecdotally, pretty small just due to the rolling of the dice.  The NHC does do forecast wind probabilities for 34kt. (t.s. strength) , 50 kt, and 64kt (hurricane strength), but they only do it out 5 days, so that data isn't in play yet.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/070832.shtml?

Just my opinion, and again just my opinion is that anyone from Miami to Newfoundland, and Bermuda should keep their eye on advisories.  This has the chance to be a very large diametered storm that might have significant impact even if you are  missed by the eye by 100's of miles.

Why Florida?  I mentioned a few posts ago, that extremely large and powerful storms sometimes defy atmospheric imfluences.  A good example is when we were watching Gilbert in 1988.  The NHC for maybe the last 800 miles of its track kept predicting a northwestern, and then northern turn to the storm.  Never happened.

[Wingnut]

I like that model.

[Kamaji]

I like that model.

As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.

[Wingnut]

As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.

True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.

[Kamaji]

True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.

Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.

[libertybele]

Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.

My take --

The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit.  According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide.  IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north.  It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.

If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide. 

We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out.  It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.

Sigh.  God help all of those in Lee's path.

[Wingnut]

My take --

The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit.  According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide.  IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north.  It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.

If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide. 

We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out.  It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.

Sigh.  God help all of those in Lee's path.

You worry too much.  Relax.  Have a Margarita and chill.

[libertybele]

You worry too much.  Relax.  Have a Margarita and chill.

Take a look at this video @link below -- the discussion at the very end is what is concerning. They bring up the possibility of this becoming even larger.  Yep I do worry --- we've been through Charley, Irma, and Ian. All 3 were too close for comfort with very near misses of a direct hit. This one is mammoth in comparison to even Irma with much greater intensity.

This one warrants a double shot of scotch.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-lee-forecast-to-reach-category-5-by-friday

[catfish1957]

NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.

145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts.  Insane

That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.

[Kamaji]

NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.

145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts.  Insane

That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.

Where is it tracking now?

[Kamaji]

Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean

By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.

Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.

The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.

Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/

[catfish1957]

Where is it tracking now?

If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories.  Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces.  Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.

Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.

[libertybele]

Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean

By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.

Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.

The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.

Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/

Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???

[libertybele]

If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories.  Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces.  Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.

Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.

IMHO FL cannot be ruled out. Locally we had a forecaster who said that this is not a FL hurricane -- that 'tweet' has now been taken down.

Weather reports have stated that if it slows down a bit due to some wind sheer (and it has already gone from a 5 to a 4), it may not curve to the north as anticipated. If that happens, I feel that FL will get walloped.  If not FL then the Carolinas.  Just my take.

[Bigun]

Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

[DCPatriot]

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

Well, they didn't want to get hit by a 'Roundhouse' in the media seeing as how they are perceived reacting to the Maui Fires.  I don't think the Electoral Vote matters there.

Furthermore, it's right here in our side yard...not in the middle of the Pacific 5K miles away.

[libertybele]

Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.

Gottcha.

[catfish1957]

Lee has ran into a a SW to NE tongue of sheer a couple of hundred miles NE of Leeward Islands.  Still Cat 3, at 115 mph, and NHC expects reintensification.

What is puzzling to me is the overall path still is running somewhat south and west of previous forecasts.  At focal length, you'd think this would bode badly for all between FL and entire east coast.  But, the NHC is exepcting some abrupt northward turning Wednesday.  I am still skeptical. 
Let's all hope this is the case though.

[mountaineer]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

[Kamaji]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

@mountaineer Thanks for the update!

[Wingnut]

Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):

https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628

Rebekah Jones?   The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events?  MY MY. 

[Cyber Liberty]

Rebekah Jones?   The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events?  MY MY.

She has a Sharpie and is not afraid to use it.

[mountaineer]

Dangerous surf & life-threatening rip currents expected for Western Atlantic coastal areas this week. Too soon to know additional impacts for NE U.S. & Atlantic Canada late this week.

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1701343054806778308

[catfish1957]

It's now Monday afternoon, and that NHC projeced northward turn is  now 24-36 hours late.  As advertised, the front/trough has delievered into the Southern  and Eastern GOM. 

But let me repeat.....   Someimes these monster storms (like Gilbert as example) defy atmospheric influences, and barrow through like freight trains.  Right now, only New England is in the cone,  but the mid altlantic coast should not let their guard down.  OTOH, I do feel better for everyone Cape Hatteras southward.

Also notice that same front from about 30N/90W has gone stationary.  If the front washes out quicker than the Mets predict, I also expect a more westward projection of the storm too.  On the good side, there is a lot of broken unorganized convection to the north of the storm.  Whih I hope wlll hinder strengthening.

[DefiantMassRINO]

 

How much longer must we endure the Global Climate Change carnage until we realize that John Kerry is still a pretentious hypocritical douchebag?

It's unprecendented for New England to be hit by a hurricane in September, except in 1858, 1869, 1888, 1889, 1896, 1938, 1944, 1954, 1960, and 1985.