Tornado alley is expanding — and scientists don’t know why

[mystery-ak]

 Tornado alley is expanding — and scientists don’t know why
by Saul Elbein - 04/16/23 6:00 AM ET

Tornadoes are becoming more frequent in populated parts of the United States and are often occurring as damaging clusters — a development seen in recent deadly outbreaks from Alabama to Michigan.

The number, damage and deadliness of individual tornadoes has held roughly steady over the past 50 years, federal experts with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration told The Hill.

But broad shifts in the patterns of how tornadoes occur will pose serious challenges to policymakers and emergency managers across the South and Midwest — even as risks remain in the traditional heart of Tornado Alley.

The role to which climate change is a factor in these shifts is unknown, and the changes in tornado behavior overall represent a major meteorological mystery.

Warm winter means a powerful start to storm season — but not much else

The first quarter of 2023 represented a powerful start to the year’s tornado season, with each month offering a number of tornadoes substantially above the historical average, according to federal data.

“This past winter and our early spring has been as active as I can remember in years,” said William Bunting of the national Storm Prediction Center. “The number of events, many of the same areas being affected has been remarkable.”

This January had more than three times as many tornadoes as the historical average; February had half again as many, and March had twice as many.

Many of these storms have been both dramatically large and deadly. Tornadoes also have strayed far outside their usual domain — including touchdowns in Delaware and the suburbs of Los Angeles.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3949135-tornado-alley-expanding-scientists-dont-know-why/

[catfish1957]

Just my opinions....

(1) Tornados as a whole is not a huge number  1200 on average enumeratively when applying to statistical models.
(2) Meterlogically 100 years is also a drip in the bucket when trying to statistically analyze these.  Just like Hurricanes.
(3) Numbers and locations are statistically skewed by the fact radar has advanced so much in even the past 20-30 years.  I am sure that there are many remote locations that were not enumerated in the past, and those which are only evident by radar.

Bottom line, is this isn't like analyzing rainfall patterns.  Counting Tornadoes and their analysis is still in coinflip territory.   And honestly, just another hit piece to try to "tie weather" to climate change.   

Want a good example of the dishonesty of this author.  Cherry picking one January, February, and March and trying to tie it to statistial trending?  The Shill's toadies  can't even word smth their bullshit worth a damn.   What an idiot. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

Are these clueless scientists the same ones claiming decarbonization will stop Global Climate Change?

[Kamaji]

Just my opinions....

(1) Tornados as a whole is not a huge number  1200 on average enumeratively when applying to statistical models.
(2) Meterlogically 100 years is also a drip in the bucket when trying to statistically analyze these.  Just like Hurricanes.
(3) Numbers and locations are statistically skewed by the fact radar has advanced so much in even the past 20-30 years.  I am sure that there are many remote locations that were not enumerated in the past, and those which are only evident by radar.

Bottom line, is this isn't like analyzing rainfall patterns.  Counting Tornadoes and their analysis is still in coinflip territory.   And honestly, just another hit piece to try to "tie weather" to climate change.   

Want a good example of the dishonesty of this author.  Cherry picking one January, February, and March and trying to tie it to statistial trending?  The Shill's toadies  can't even word smth their bullshit worth a damn.   What an idiot. 

[GtHawk]

When someone says Tornado Alley is expanding and scientists don't know why, I know I'm being set up for another climate change/globull warming claim.

[catfish1957]

When someone says Tornado Alley is expanding and scientists don't know why, I know I'm being set up for another climate change/globull warming claim.

According to Linkedin-  Saul Elbein is the "Sustainability Reporter" for the Shill.   

You just can't make up silly shit like that. He's got the environmental cred of a pinto bean.

[Hoodat]

Tornadoes are becoming more frequent in populated parts of the United States .  .  .

Populated areas of the United States are expanding while the number of tornadoes remains the same.  An increase in populated area (as a fraction of total area) means that the likelihood that a populated area incurs a tornado also increases.

[Kamaji]

Populated areas of the United States are expanding while the number of tornadoes remains the same.  An increase in populated area (as a fraction of total area) means that the likelihood that a populated area incurs a tornado also increases.

[catfish1957]

Populated areas of the United States are expanding while the number of tornadoes remains the same.  An increase in populated area (as a fraction of total area) means that the likelihood that a populated area incurs a tornado also increases.

One of the biggest aspects of the increased temperature falacies is the fact that the majority of NWS reporting stations (of course in metro areas) was built in the burbs in the 1940's and 1950's.  The majority of those have witnessed urban creep, and are now impacted by heat island effect to some degree that has skewed the data.  Enviro-whacko scammers always conveniently leave that fact out when doing temperature analysis of reporting stations.