Donald Trump Has No Path To General Election Victory

[mystery-ak]

Donald Trump Has No Path To General Election Victory
Scott Morefield

As former President Donald Trump and his diehard supporters continue to jump the shark with baseless and unhinged attacks on the most popular elected Republican in decades, the elephant continues to lay waste to the room, stomping and trumpeting and generally making a nuisance of itself to the extent that it’s impossible to ignore.

We can talk about records. We can talk about positions on specific issues. We can talk about who makes better hiring decisions. We can talk about a whole host of things that are all quite relevant to picking the next president of the United States, but all of them are moot if one thing is missing - that elephant of all elephants - electability in a general election.

You can say what you want about Trump, and you’d probably be right. Did he get robbed in 2020? Yes. Does he deserve a second term to make up for that? Seems fair. Are Trump’s policy positions, especially on trade, immigration, and foreign policy, the best course for America? Absolutely. Can he do the job effectively? If he learns from his mistakes, especially on hiring decisions, there is no doubt. Was his record mostly good? Until March 2020, two thumbs up. If he is arrested this week on this bogus nonsense, would it be nothing more than a political witch hunt? Obviously.

more
https://townhall.com/columnists/scottmorefield/2023/03/20/donald-trump-has-no-path-to-general-election-victory-n2620864

[Fishrrman]

You have to read the entire article to understand Morefield's point -- that it's going to be difficult or impossible for Mr. Trump to win in the Electoral College due to the leftward-shift of the swing states he mentions.

But... he, too, is missing something:
The reason these states are becoming out-of-reach to Republican presidential candidates is really due to the emergence and refinement of The Party's "underground election apparatus".

States that Mr. Trump won in 2016 such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania (along with Arizona and Georgia) will determine the winner of the presidential election.

The Party was successfully able to "control" the elections in these states in 2020 (using "the apparatus"). And then again, in 2022, for the mid-term elections as required.

I challenge anyone reading this post to reply:
What has changed in the states mentioned above that will change the outcome in 2024? If anything, MI, WI, PA and AZ now have dem-communist control, and will thwart any attempts at electoral integrity therein. Even Georgia will be "in doubt", due not only to the apparatus but also to continuing demographic changes in that state.

So Mr. Trump WILL have an almost-impossible battle to win again in 2024.
But having said that, any other Republican candidate will do worse -- probably MUCH worse. Because only Mr. Trump has "the real base" of "deplorables" supporting him. Assuming they do turn out in good numbers for someone else, they're not going to produce ENOUGH votes as they would have for Mr. Trump.

Please take 30 seconds to read this post I put up on Oct. 17, 2020:
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,417203.msg2305819.html#msg2305819

Unless Mr. Trump is able to win in 2024, no Republican is likely to be elected president again.
At least not in the presently-comprised "United States"...

[Maj. Bill Martin]

You have to read the entire article to understand Morefield's point -- that it's going to be difficult or impossible for Mr. Trump to win in the Electoral College due to the leftward-shift of the swing states he mentions.

Not exactly - you left out the other half of his point.  What he actually said in that article was this:

Yes, it’s an entirely different political landscape, but it’s also one in which Trump and his antics have managed to permanently alienate at least half of eligible voters in this country. And it’s not just voters in California and New York, but plenty of key swing states as well, states that will be absolutely necessary for Trump to win the Electoral College.

and...

I can assure you that electoral shifts over the past several years sparked by demographic changes as well as Trump’s own antics have rendered those states solid Democratic electoral strongholds.

I understand your point about the elections themselves, but I don't think Trump has a shot at winning the required swing states even if you eliminated all fraud.  He's just pissed off too many voters.

A different Republican who hasn't pissed off all those swing voters is the only chance we've got.  Now maybe too many Trump voters won't vote for anyone but Trump, so no other Republican can win.  But while there certainly are some of those folks, I don't think it is most.  Rather roll the dice with that than with Trump magically winning back the swing voters.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

And yet Trump has surprising strength in the RCP polling average against Biden. Maybe Trump will win the popular vote and lose the EC? I suppose it's possible.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Pessimism of course seems to be the safer option lately with these things of course...

[massadvj]

Trump has a very clear path to general election victory, especially given the trajectory of the country. Whoever the nominee is will have a path. Is Trump the strongest or weakest of the possible nominees in this regard? That question is one reason we have primaries -- to test that very proposition, among others.

[LMAO]

Trump has a very clear path to general election victory, especially given the trajectory of the country. Whoever the nominee is will have a path. Is Trump the strongest or weakest of the possible nominees in this regard? That question is one reason we have primaries -- to test that very proposition, among others.

The country was in rough shape in 2022 and everybody had visions of a red wave. Instead, we have an anemic House majority and Democrats holding the Senate

And the GOP wasn’t as divided then as they will be in 2024. But, stranger things have happened.

But sitting incumbent presidents are more likely to get reelected. Very few throughout history have been voted out of office. And it seems to be especially true if they don’t have a serious primary challenge from their own party.

I suppose anybody has a path to the White House. But Trump already goes into a general election  toxic to average voters. Hillary Clinton had the same issues with voters in the 2016 election but the Democrats are not re nominating Hillary Clinton.

[Smokin Joe]

Who votes does not count. Who counts the votes matters.

Until and unless the fraud is thwarted in this country, the GOP has no prayer to win.

[libertybele]

Who votes does not count. Who counts the votes matters.

Until and unless the fraud is thwarted in this country, the GOP has no prayer to win.

 

[DefiantMassRINO]

[LMAO]

Who is that?

[DefiantMassRINO]

NY freshman GOP Congressman, George Santos ...

[LMAO]

NY freshman GOP Congressman, George Santos ...

OK now I can put a face with the name

[Fishrrman]

Smokin' Joe observes:
"Who votes does not count. Who counts the votes matters.
Until and unless the fraud is thwarted in this country, the GOP has no prayer to win."

Unlike most of the posters above you, you understand what "the problem" is.
They... do not.

[MajorClay]

BS

[catfish1957]

Baseless claims and accusations  (show us the proof you orange POS) that your main GOP opponent is a pedophile, is just an example how much of a low life this bastard is. 

I've shown the proof he shot our deficit faster than any predecessor in our life time.  Hell with him

This is just another slap in the face of a mass implosion that I hope forces his ass into oblivion.