The 1.5 Degree Temperature Target is a Dead Man Walking
On the consequences of policy-based evidence in climate politics
Since the early 1990s, climate policy has focused on a number of different metrics around which to set policy goals, including emissions cuts (Kyoto 1997), atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (Copenhagen 2009) and global average temperature change from pre-industrial times (Paris 2015). In an earlier post I described the arbitrary and non-scientific origins of the 2 degree Celsius temperature target of the Paris Agreement (2015).
In today’s post I explain the origins of its companion, the 1.5 degree Celsius target that has in many respects eclipsed the 2C target in public discussions of climate. Most scientists in climate know that despite its prominent role in political exhortation the 1.5 C target is already obsolete. In fact, it has always been.
Here is how that happened.
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-15-degree-temperature-target
