Have Embarrassing Failed Predictions Taught Climate Scientists to be Cautious?
13 hours ago Eric Worrall 48 Comments
Essay by Eric Worrall
“… It is difficult to predict whether changes in cyclone formation and behaviour will pose a risk to Australia …”
Tropical cyclones in Australia: How severe are they, and what impact will climate change have on them?
By Emily Bennett 7:09am Dec 11, 2022
Tropical cyclones have killed hundreds of Australians and caused billions of dollars in damage – and we’ve been warned they’re only going to get worse.
With another cyclone season upon us, what lies ahead for our region in the coming months?
…
Is the number of cyclones predicted to increase due to climate change?
The total number of cyclones in Australia is predicted to decrease – but that’s not the full story.
Climate models project an increase in the proportion of high-intensity storms, with stronger winds and higher rainfall, according to the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.
University of Melbourne expert Professor Kevin Walsh agrees with the modelling.
“The most likely outcome for the future frequency of tropical cyclones in the Australian region is a slight decrease,” Walsh said.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/12/have-embarrassing-failed-predictions-taught-climate-scientists-to-be-cautious/