How The El Nino Is Changing
19 hours ago Willis Eschenbach 179 Comments
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Let me start with a quick run through how mainstream climate scientists think the climate works, and then my hypothesis on how the climate works.
The central paradigm of modern climate science is that changes in the global temperature are a linear function of the “forcing”, the total energy input to the planetary surface. This is generally expressed as an equation:
∆T = λ ∆F
The delta “∆” means “change in”. The lambda “λ” is a constant called the “climate sensitivity”. “F” is the forcing, in watts per square meter. And “T” is the temperature. So the equation says:
The change in temperature ∆T is equal to the climate sensitivity λ times the change in forcing ∆F.
Me, I think that’s nonsense. If it were true, the global average temperature would go up and down like a yo-yo on steroids. But it doesn’t. Over the entire 20th century, the temperature increased by about 0.2%. Two-tenths of a percent. And this is despite monthly temperature variations at many locations varying by 30°C or more (~10%), so it cannot be from “thermal inertia” as many people claim.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/12/03/how-the-el-nino-is-changing/
