Mid-term Election 2022 Live Thread – Welcome to the Party Pal!

[mystery-ak]

Liz Peek
@lizpeek
·
20h
What a freaking train wreck- the senate goes Dem & it's not clear @GOP
 will even win the House. Heads must roll - this is an horrific outcome given @JoeBiden
's disastrous tenure in the WH. HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?

[libertybele]

THE STEAL: The Number of House Seats Continues to Dwindle As GOP Leaders Remain Silent and Ignore Reality
By Joe Hoft
Published November 13, 2022 at 8:00am



The race for control of the US House is not over.  It’s not over till the Democrats say it’s over.

The world is watching in amazement as corrupt election officials and politicians across the country can’t seem to finalize the results of an election five days ago.  Texas and Florida can complete their election results a few hours after the election, but other states are days away, if not weeks.

The 2022 Election was supposed to be a route for the GOP.  Biden and his gang of America-destroying communists are understandably not well-liked.  They are even hated for their actions in Afghanistan, with the economy, the Jan 6 communist kangaroo court, and much more.  Most Americans can’t list three things that this administration has done for the good of America.  Many can’t name one thing.

China is very happy with the Biden regime, and so are Soros and Obama.  The destruction of America is near complete.  Free speech and free and fair elections were on the ballot.

On Monday, the night before the election, Real Clear Politics, which leans left because of its use of left-leaning polls, had the GOP winning 227 seats with a good chance at gaining many of the remaining 34 toss-up seats.

NBC News now projects a very narrow GOP win of 219 seats to the Dems 216.

Where is the GOP leadership as the Democrats slowly steal the US House?  Where’s McCarthy?  Where’s McDaniel?  Where was McConnell in the Senate races?

Why are we not hearing GOP leadership standing up for the candidates who are still in the race and for those who had their races stolen with massive ballot drops out of nowhere?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/steal-number-house-seats-continues-dwindle-gop-leaders-sleep/

Yes, where are the voices of the GOP as another election is obviously stolen?  Mitch?  McCarthy?  Ronna?

Pelosi would even have you believe that the GOP attack on her husband is why there was low voter turnout and those who voted DEM. Really? 

Just a note; some time ago after the election was stolen from Trump I started a thread in essence Where do We Go From Here? Speaking for myself my health has deteriorated even from then and I feel frustrated because there's not much I can do, other than make phone calls to my GOP Senators both State and Local and certainly that won't get a whole lot accomplished.  I wish I could be actively involved like I was years ago, but that just isn't in the cards.

So, I guess I'll pose the question one more time; Where do we go from here?  Anyone???

[Hoodat]

Congratulations to the GOP for sitting on their azzes and doing nothing!

Not so here in Georgia.  The State GOP worked hand in hand with the Dems to decide the elections beforehand.  The deal they worked out was that the Dems would trade the US Senate seat for the State Government races.  That's why Stacy Abrams stopped campainging down the stretch and started pulling money out of her campaign.  She also conceded the race very early on election night without putting up a fight or even planning a victory party celebration with her supporters.

And to top it off, the Secretary of State who took money under the table and violated numerous election laws in 2020 just happened to win his election by a wider margin than even the governor.

You want things to change?  Start turning up the heat on Republicans.

[Hoodat]

So, I guess I'll pose the question one more time; Where do we go from here?  Anyone???

Texas.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Not so hopeful of Lake's chances based on theoretical ballots left in Maricopa....

If 87.1% of the vote is counted, I have calculated that Lake will have to win 64.2% of the remaining Maricopa vote (approx. 202,000), to make up the present 57K deficit. 

Just don't see it.

I don't either @catfish1957

[libertybele]

How can anyone paying attention to the elections not question and realize that the voting tabulation is extremely, ridiculously slow?

Oregon House seat flips to GOP, which needs six more to capture majority

Republicans on Sunday picked up one of several seats that they’ll need to secure in order to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, which is still not guaranteed five days after the midterm elections were held.

Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer bested Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner to take the House seat in Oregon’s 5th District.

The win gave Republicans 212 seats in the House, still short of a minimum majority of 218 with 19 races that have not been called yet. But Republicans are not home free and still must win most of the races in which they’re leading in order to take control of the House..............

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/oregon-house-flip-gop-six-more-majority

[libertybele]

Texas.

Texas or FL.  It has been reported that very conservative governors won easily their re-election.

Ideally conservative governors need to ban together and pushback.

[DB]

Conservative people are probably moving to states with conservative governors. That's makes them more red and the states they left more blue.

[Right_in_Virginia]

You want things to change?  Start turning up the heat on Republicans.

Should have fought for Trump. 

[berdie]

Texas.

Chris Rea...is that you?   

[libertybele]

Not so here in Georgia.  The State GOP worked hand in hand with the Dems to decide the elections beforehand.  The deal they worked out was that the Dems would trade the US Senate seat for the State Government races.  That's why Stacy Abrams stopped campainging down the stretch and started pulling money out of her campaign.  She also conceded the race very early on election night without putting up a fight or even planning a victory party celebration with her supporters.

And to top it off, the Secretary of State who took money under the table and violated numerous election laws in 2020 just happened to win his election by a wider margin than even the governor.

You want things to change?  Start turning up the heat on Republicans.

A little too late... holding our elected officials accountable is the obvious, but there are too many RINO's in DC and not enough conservatives running against them and then we have McConnell who sides with incumbents as long as they play his game.  Losing the Senate had a lot to do with McConnell and some of Trump's endorsements didn't help.

[Right_in_Virginia]

[Right_in_Virginia]

[Hoodat]

See Logical Fallacies:  Post Hoc

[cato potatoe]

Schweikert (AZ-1) took an 894 vote lead today with ~22k remaining. 

[mystery-ak]

Schweikert (AZ-1) took an 894 vote lead today with ~22k remaining.

Fingers crossed

[catfish1957]

Oops...sorry for the screw up....   That 57K deficit I cited is bogus.  That is the deficit in Maricopa County...  if you run the same numbers agin based on the actual 34 K defecit statewide......   The actual number  Lake will have to win is 52.8%...  Still difficult, but much more doable.

26K deficit

Time and available votes slipping away for a Lake win.

Based on 93.1% of all votes  in. Lake will have to win 57.3% of the balance of theoretical outstanding votes to win

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

26K deficit

Time and available votes slipping away for a Lake win.

Based on 93.1% of all votes  in. Lake will have to win 57.3% of the balance of theoretical outstanding votes to win

Sorry but I thought lakes confidence was pretty delusional on Friday now Its only more so.

[catfish1957]

Updated 7:30 a.m.

@mystery-ak

I've done a district - county by county turnout review, and drill down ....  this isn't ironclad method but where the votes are outstanding, and % ballot completion should give a fair estimate, of how the race breaks-

Updates in purple- 19 races remain


The remaining races include:

Alaska's at-large Congressional District: Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and Republican Sarah Palin. Stupid ranking runoff- With ranking, and senatorial race help too, expect this sear to go "D"

Arizona:
AZ-01 with Democrat Jevin Hodge and Republican Rep. David Schweikert. 50.4-49.6

3K votes down with 32 k theo. votes left.  One county only -Maricopa- Strong advantage Dem.

Now 50.1- 49.9.  And race has tightened.  Based on AZ data, there are still about 10K votes left.  So, I have adjusted status to very slight advantage to the democrats.  This still could break "R"

AZ-06 with Democrat Kirsten Engel and Republican Juan Ciscomani. 50.2-49.8

3/4 of the outstanding vote is in heavily dim leaning Pima County-  I think this one goes to the dems. Advantage Dem

Now 50.3- 49.7 for Ciscomani, and now left to 7% of count left.  I am cautiously changing projection of this to "R" with this trend



California:

I don't think the idiotic corrupt state of CA even counted any votes yesterday.  So no status changes at this point

CA-03 with Democrat Kermit Jones and Republican Kevin Kiley. 53.0-47.0

District has several GOP leaning counties that have plenty of cushion. GOP Win


CA-09 with Democrat Rep. Josh Harder and Republican Tom Patti. 56.3-43.7

Overwhelming percentage of voter highly favors the Dems.  Easy hold.  Dem Win

CA-13 with Democrat Adam Gray and Republican John Duarte. 50.1-49.9

Counties slow in counting are significantly Dim in config so far.  Democratic Win


CA-21 with Democrat Rep. Jim Costa and Republican Michael Maher 54.6-45.4

Liberal Fresno undercounted of the two counties.  Dems bigly. Democratic Win


CA-22 with Democrat Rudy Salas and Republican Rep. David Valadao 52.5-47.5

County make up a distribution is a near wash, with slight slight edgeto dims  This one is an utter tossup...   But with near 3K lead in hand?  GOP Win

CA-27 with Democrat Christy Smith and Republican Rep. Mike Garcia 55.4-44.6

Unless there are very dissimilar precints within this district, this one should have been already called. GOP Win

CA-41 with Democrat Will Rollins and Republican Rep. Ken Calvert 50.7-49.3

Another one that will rely on which precint ideology trends-  Razor close, but based on present lead- GOP Win

CA-45 with Democrat Jay Chen and Republican Rep. Michelle Steel 53.8-46.2

Conservative Orange County should prevail- GOP Win

CA-47 with Democrat Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Scott Baugh 51.3-48.7

Nothing to stop the dem loss here.  Dem win
CA-49 with Democrat Rep. Mike Levin and Republican Brian Maryott 52.3-47.7

Big  Lead, Blue district.  Dem Win

.

Colorado:
CO-03 with Democrat Adam Frisch and Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert 50.2-49.8

All the vote is in basically (>99%) This is Boebert unless the dims find out some way to steal, like recount-  GOP Win

No change in the vote totals, Maybe CO is looking for a cheat, so my it hasn't been called.


CO-08 with Democrat Yadira Caraveo and Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer 48.4-47.7

County votes missing favors the GOP but with a 2k lead, this is going to be razor close. Coin flip..  Dem Hold

No change

Maine:
ME-02 with Democrat Rep. Jared Golden and Republican Bruce Poliquin 49.2-43.9

2 counties who I have no idea aligns show no votes.  With the big lead otherwise . A no doubter.....   Dem Win

No change

New Mexico:
NM-02 with Democrat Vasquez v. GOP Herrell- 50.3-49.7

Missing counted votes are from heavily blue counties. Easy blue.  Dem win.

No change


New York:
NY-22 with Democrat Francis Conole and Republican Brandon Williams 50.7-49.3

No reason this one should be called.  94%vote in GOP Win

50.7-49.2  No change

Oregon:
OR-05 with Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer 51.1-48.8

Most votes outstanding are from Blue leaning Clackamas, and otherwise slight otherwise edge to the dims Dems Win

Just Called for Skinner...   Dem Win.

OR-06 with Democrat Andrea Salinas and Republican Mike Erickson 49.7-48.0

Dims have heavy advantage in counties that have reported less.  This lead should widen. Dems win



Present Count GOP 212 Dem. 204





Count based on my analysis and projection

GOP 221 Dem. 214

[mystery-ak]

Republicans Mercifully, Finally Get Some Good News Regarding the 2022 Election
By Bonchie | 8:00 AM on November 14, 2022

With the Senate officially back in Democratic Party hands and major governorships lost, Republicans could use some good news. The election has been an unmitigated disaster, with one of the best electoral environments in decades being blown in spectacular fashion.

But, while dooming is more than warranted, I can finally bring some merciful good news regarding the House of Representatives. Nothing is official yet, but three major signs on Sunday evening, including a call after a ballot dump in Arizona, appear to make a GOP victory in the House inevitable.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1591989978170593283

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1591818922784952322

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1591953036813144065

The three seats mentioned above were absolutely crucial for Democrat chances of retaining the House. That Oregon seat was actually further up the firewall, and probably alone seals the deal. Juan Ciscomani’s comeback in Arizona only pads what will likely be a GOP seat total of 220-221.

So why is it not official? In short, California is going to take weeks to finish counting its votes (because, of course). Yet, most of the contested seats are being led by Republicans in areas that favor them. Mike Garcia in CA27, for example, has already declared victory and his opponent has basically conceded (in a long, whiney Twitter thread), yet it hasn’t been “called” yet. There are several more races of that flavor going on out there.

more
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2022/11/14/republicans-mercifully-finally-get-some-good-news-regarding-the-2022-election-n658643

[catfish1957]

26K deficit

Time and available votes slipping away for a Lake win.

Based on 93.1% of all votes  in. Lake will have to win 57.3% of the balance of theoretical outstanding votes to win

No votes counted since last update.  Lake was certain there would be a massive shift toward in the count towards her.  Either her "on the ground" intelligence was wrong, or the Fox in the Hen House stole this election bigly.

[mystery-ak]

Maricopa County Election Judge Believes the Machines Were Programmed to Reject Ballots on Election Day
By Jim Hoft
Published November 13, 2022 at 6:45pm

Michele Swinick was an election judge in Maricopa County on election day last week. Following the election Michele stepped forward to discuss what she experienced in Maricopa County on Election Day.

Michele worked at a center in a heavily Republican district. According to Michele, the tabulators worked perfectly well the night before the election. Then on Election Day they quit working. Only 1 in 10 ballots were accepted through the tabulators. The officials were told to put the defective ballots into a different section called “Door 3.”

Michele believes this was all planned. The election officials knew that republicans were going to come out in force on election day as they did in the primary. This was a planned operation.

more
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/maricopa-county-election-judge-believes-machines-programmed-reject-ballots-election-day/

[mystery-ak]

VIDEO MONTAGE: Arizona Republican Voters Describe How Ballots Were Not Counted, Ballots Were Tossed in a Box, and People Were Not Allowed in to Vote (VIDEO)

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/11/video-montage-dozens-arizona-republican-voters-describe-ballots-not-counted-ballots-tossed-box-people-not-allowed-vote-video/

[mountaineer]

VIDEO MONTAGE: Arizona Republican Voters Describe How Ballots Were Not Counted, Ballots Were Tossed in a Box, and People Were Not Allowed in to Vote (VIDEO)

I have to believe (or hope) the team of GOP lawyers is on this and that lawsuits will be filed. 

[catfish1957]

Just saw where NBC is projecting that the GOP will win the House with a 219-216 margin.

I am thinking they'll total 220 or 221.