Remember: Polls Can’t Always Detect Late Momentum

[Free Vulcan]

A poll is a snapshot, not a prediction. That maxim used to be a fairly standard caveat when media outlets published poll data. I rarely hear it these days, but it’s important – especially at the end of a campaign.

Surveys in the final week of October may be more predictive than those from early September, but they can still struggle to capture any final momentum bursts, or busts. Moreover, since the frequency of polling has declined, we may have races with little or no sampling taken in the final week of the campaign, making it literally impossible to detect late shifts.

Several senatorial and gubernatorial candidates in recent years have outperformed their final polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/01/remember_polls_cant_always_detect_late_momentum_148399.html

[Cyber Liberty]

It's worse this year, because more Republicans are refusing to participate in the surveys.  That big German speech in front of Independence Hall was the final nail in this coffin, when he made it clear we are the "Enemy."

[Wingnut]

It's worse this year, because more Republicans are refusing to participate in the surveys.  That big German speech in front of Independence Hall was the final nail in this coffin, when he made it clear we are the "Enemy."

Ah Yes.  I remember at the time I asked...