Two weeks ago, the world learned that Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Georgia who supports a total abortion ban without exceptions, had paid for his pregnant then-girlfriend to get an abortion in 2009. (Walker denies this.) At the time, we cautioned that we would need to wait and see how the controversy might affect Walker’s chances of winning the race.
We now have new polling data that suggests that the story may have cost Walker some support. The Trafalgar Group, Quinnipiac University, Emerson College and InsiderAdvantage have all polled Georgia since the abortion story broke.1 Those surveys showed Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock leading, on average, 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. Previously, in those same pollsters’ most recent surveys taken before the news broke, the two candidates were essentially tied at 47 percent each.
Warnock has gained since Walker’s abortion controversy
Margins of polls in Georgia’s U.S. Senate race before and after news broke that Herschel Walker had paid for his pregnant then-girlfriend to get an abortion in 2009
POLLSTER MARGIN BEFORE MARGIN AFTER SHIFT
Trafalgar Group R+1 D+2 D+2
Quinnipiac D+6 D+7 D+1
Emerson College R+2 D+2 D+4
InsiderAdvantage R+3 D+3 D+6
Average EVEN D+3 D+3
The Trafalgar polls were conducted Aug. 24-27 and Oct. 8-11; Quinnipiac, Sept. 8-12 and Oct. 7-10; Emerson College, Aug. 28-29 and Oct. 6-7; and InsiderAdvantage, Sept. 6-7 and Oct. 16. All eight were among likely voters.
SOURCE: POLLS
That’s not a ton of movement; it’s also narrow enough to be within the surveys’ margins of error. But the consistency among pollsters gives us more confidence that it represents a true shift. Warnock now leads by 4.1 percentage points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average of the race,2 up from 2.1 points on the day the story broke.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/herschel-walker-polls/
