Whodathunkit: GOP generic-ballot rating jumps to 8-month high just before Election Day -- unexpectedly
Ah, the incentives of accountability. They work so well in a free market, no?
One month ago, the media used the generic-ballot polling market to claim Democrats were making a comeback of sorts. A week or two ago, the narrative shifted to Republicans making limited gains. Now that Election Day is almost upon us, and now that RealClearPolitics has announced its plans to begin keeping score on pollsters and their relative success in predictive outcomes, suddenly RCP’s congressional metric has begun turning more red.
Take a look at that gap and the direction the polls have taken — especially now that pollsters are finally reporting on likely-voter models rather than registered voters. Three weeks ago, I argued that pollsters had delayed their LV reporting until suspiciously late in the cycle, and perhaps wanted to avoid what that would show. They certainly had plenty of data on voter enthusiasm well before that point, and yet insisted on sticking with RV reporting until late in September — in some cases, after actual voting had started.
https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2022/10/18/whodathunkit-gop-generic-ballot-rating-jumps-to-8-month-high-just-before-election-day-unexpectedly-n504075
