Pollsters Are Terrified That They're Blowing the Midterms and Giving Democrats False Hope

[mystery-ak]

Pollsters Are Terrified That They're Blowing the Midterms and Giving Democrats False Hope
Elizabeth Stauffer, The Western Journal By Elizabeth Stauffer, The Western Journal
Published September 26, 2022 at 7:35pm

Democrats were riding high this summer. The Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade energized the party’s base, and the economic woes that had been plaguing the Biden administration began to subside as gas prices dropped.

The party had finally scored several legislative wins with the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. Former President Donald Trump was under investigation by the Department of Justice for potentially violating the Espionage Act, and the generic congressional polls began to tilt in their favor. Suddenly, predictions of certain midterm disaster for the party gave way to cautious optimism.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, the pendulum never swings in one direction forever. The stock market has fallen into bear market territory. Inflation remains stubbornly high. Although gas prices have fallen from their peak, they’re still much higher than they were when Biden took office and the rising costs of necessities such as groceries and housing have outpaced those reductions.

Biden’s “soul of the nation” speech, in which he declared “MAGA Republicans” to be semi-fascists who posed a threat to our democracy, didn’t exactly help his party’s candidates. And Republican Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have managed to focus voters’ attention on the disaster that’s unfolding at our southern border.

Still, the polls remain quite favorable for Democrats. But, there is reason to believe that pollsters are once again overestimating Democrats’ chances and underestimating those of the Republicans. And that has some Democrats worried they might see a repeat of the polling misses we saw in 2016 and 2020.

more
https://thefederalistpapers.org/us/pollsters-terrified-blowing-midterms-giving-democrats-false-hope

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Pollsters Are Terrified That They're Blowing the Midterms and Giving Democrats False Hope
Elizabeth Stauffer, The Western Journal By Elizabeth Stauffer, The Western Journal
Published September 26, 2022 at 7:35pm

Democrats were riding high this summer. The Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade energized the party’s base, and the economic woes that had been plaguing the Biden administration began to subside as gas prices dropped.

The party had finally scored several legislative wins with the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. Former President Donald Trump was under investigation by the Department of Justice for potentially violating the Espionage Act, and the generic congressional polls began to tilt in their favor. Suddenly, predictions of certain midterm disaster for the party gave way to cautious optimism.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, however, the pendulum never swings in one direction forever. The stock market has fallen into bear market territory. Inflation remains stubbornly high. Although gas prices have fallen from their peak, they’re still much higher than they were when Biden took office and the rising costs of necessities such as groceries and housing have outpaced those reductions.

Biden’s “soul of the nation” speech, in which he declared “MAGA Republicans” to be semi-fascists who posed a threat to our democracy, didn’t exactly help his party’s candidates. And Republican Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have managed to focus voters’ attention on the disaster that’s unfolding at our southern border.

Still, the polls remain quite favorable for Democrats. But, there is reason to believe that pollsters are once again overestimating Democrats’ chances and underestimating those of the Republicans. And that has some Democrats worried they might see a repeat of the polling misses we saw in 2016 and 2020.

more
https://thefederalistpapers.org/us/pollsters-terrified-blowing-midterms-giving-democrats-false-hope

I don't believe so:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

Maybe when Trump is running, he skews polls by getting non-voters to vote. But when he's not running, have to think the polls are more accurate. Check out the RCP average. Pretty dead on in the Youngkin election.

Edit: Caveate, RV polls are worthless, LV polls are far more accurate.

[Free Vulcan]

Yes but false Democrat hopes turn into delicious Democrat tears.

[DB]

The people I know won't talk to a pollster. So that skews things in a particular direction...

[roamer_1]

They ALWAYS skew the polls mid-summer till October. And they are ALWAYS skewed toward Democrats, speaking evil into Republicans... I don't pay em no mind at all till late in the process, when they have to start jiggering things back toward reality, or risk being so far sideways that no one will listen to them anymore.

And that's what is happening now. They are backing off of the expectations they have baked in for Democrats, and are starting to back-peddle... Two more weeks and it will be worth worrying about.

[Wingnut]

The people I know won't talk to a pollster. So that skews things in a particular direction...

I accidently answered a poll call about Desantis/Crist.  It was tedious and the wording was pushing for a positive Crist response.  I hung up on the dude after 15 questions.