Republicans' 2022 chances are better than some polls suggest
by Spencer Abraham and Colin Pitts
September 27, 2022 06:58 AM
According to recent media commentaries on the midterm elections, Republicans are teetering on the edge of disaster. Where most observers had been predicting a big Republican win as recently as mid-July, many of the “experts” are now rushing to count the GOP out, even though the election is still over a month away.
Leading election analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gave Democrats a 70 in 100 chance to hold the Senate in his recent and widely reported forecast. Other analysts are likewise now projecting growing Democratic strength. The impact of these dire predictions can have a significant impact on fundraising, volunteer enthusiasm, voter turnout, and resource allocation if party supporters accept as fact that the Senate is already lost.
But how reliable are conclusions made on elections when a major part of their basis is determined by polling data conducted two months before Election Day? Let’s take a look.
In 2020, media experts had all but written off Maine Sen. Susan Collins’s reelection bid two months out. By mid-September, a Quinnipiac poll had challenger Sarah Gideon up 12 points over the incumbent and the New York Times/Siena poll had Collins down by 5. In November, voters delivered Collins a comfortable 9-point victory.
In Iowa, incumbent Joni Ernst was considered very vulnerable. In mid-September, the Des Moines Register and Monmouth polls each had Theresa Greenfield leading by 3 points, and the New York Times/Siena poll had her up by just 2. In November, Ernst comfortably retained her seat by nearly 7 points.
Meanwhile, in South Carolina, polls were pointing to a very tight contest between Sen. Lindsey Graham and challenger Jaime Harrison. In August and September, Quinnipiac had the race tied and CBS News/YouGov, showed Graham clinging to a 1-point lead. Graham won reelection by 10 points.
Of course, 2020 wasn’t an isolated case. We saw similar misleading polling in 2018 and, famously, in 2016 as well. Since there are no compelling reasons to think this year’s polls will be more accurate than those in recent cycles, there is a significant probability that this year’s polls are likewise understating Republicans' strength. Several commentators from the Left and Right have raised this issue in recent days, with many wishing there was a way to improve polling accuracy. At the Polling Monitor, we believe we have devised a very helpful methodology to address these concerns.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/republicans-2022-chances-are-better-than-some-polls-suggest
