Research Gate by Patrick Bruskiewich Director, Vancouver Institute for Advanced Studies
Abstract A recent failure of the launch system on Blue Origin’s flag ship first venture into manned systems begs the question whether the company that offers this system meets safety requirements of modern manned space programs. The following review suggests the offering is unsafe and that there is no necessity for a fifth and minor player, in the manned space flight marketplace. It is recommended that the US Government place a stop work order on any further development of Space systems of any kind by Blue Origin, and to set into abeyance any resources or funding presently being offered Blue Origin by the US Government.
The Necessity for Due Caution in Manned Space Flight When the Obama Administration began setting down a manned program to follow the end of the US Space Shuttle Program, the author passed along the recommendation to President Obama, by way of his science advisor, that a return to ballistic rocketry into LEO be predicated on an existing manned rated launch 1 system. This recommendation became the basis of the decision to use the ULA Atlas V as a primary launcher.
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The stated current statistical mortality rate is 3.2 per cent. 4 A closer assessment sees 18 lives lost of 1182 humans launched into space – a mortality rate of 1.5 %. Based on the numbers outlined above in Table 1, the percentage of failed flights is 3 9 out of 354 for a failure rate of 2.5%. One may infer a failure rate of 2.5 % to be the normative risk in manned missions. In terms of the Space Shuttle Program it NASA’s recent normative risk is closer to 1.5 % (two flights lost out of 135 flights).
It is clearly evident that the flight record of Blue Origin of 2 failures in 24 launches is 8.3% which is more than three-sigma deviation from the 2.5 % normative risk and six times higher than 1.5 %. The dismal Blue Origin record is comparable to the Soviet failure rate in the period 1960-1972. It is a tourist offering. In comparison the mortality risk of commercial air flight as set out in a MIT report is 1 death per every 7.9 million boardings, or 1.27 x 10 – 5 percent.
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It is recommended to the US Government that no further manned flights be certified for Blue Origin’s present manned launch system and that their FAA license to offer such tourist flights to the edge of the Karman line be set in abeyance for the foreseeable future. Compared to the mainstream companies, Blue Origin is a sort of ‘hobby farm’ for a part time agronomist. Or if you prefer a ... ‘hobby horse.’
The Blue Origin system appears to be an inherently unsafe system and it is inevitable that mortality will occur in a future tourist launch. Given the unique nature of spaceflight, the suggestion that Caveat Emptor is at play is not an acceptable norm.
More:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363735677_Are_Blue_Origin%27s_space_systems_safe_enough_for_Manned_Space_Flight
