The New York Times Is Warning Democrats Recent Polling May Be Too Good to Be True Joe Cunningham

[mystery-ak]

The New York Times Is Warning Democrats Recent Polling May Be Too Good to Be True
By Joe Cunningham | Sep 12, 2022 9:45 AM ET

There have been many critiques of polling errors in recent years, especially after the 2016 presidential election. However, polling has always tended to skew toward the Democrats, and the results in several races in the last decade have been very surprising for some politicos.

If you pay attention to the polling right now, however, there are some signs that the same errors that have overinflated Democrats’ confidence in the past might be doing so again.

Polling analyst Nate Cohn at the New York Times has a piece out this morning that throws a bit of cold water on Democrats’ expectations for keeping the Senate.

    Ahead of the last presidential election, we created a website tracking the latest polls — internally, we called it a “polling diary.” Despite a tough polling cycle, one feature proved to be particularly helpful: a table showing what would happen if the 2020 polls were as “wrong” as they were in 2016, when pollsters systematically underestimated Donald J. Trump’s strength against Hillary Clinton.

    […]

    We created this poll error table for a reason: Early in the 2020 cycle, we noticed that Joe Biden seemed to be outperforming Mrs. Clinton in the same places where the polls overestimated her four years earlier. That pattern didn’t necessarily mean the polls would be wrong — it could have just reflected Mr. Biden’s promised strength among white working-class voters, for instance — but it was a warning sign.

    That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

Cohn points out that Wisconsin currently looks like it’s very in play for Democrats, where incumbent Senator Ron Johnson is in trouble according to the polls. However, he then explains that Wisconsin was “ground zero” for polling error in 2020. Polls during the presidential election cycle overestimated Biden’s strength by 8 percentage points.

more
https://redstate.com/joesquire/2022/09/12/the-new-york-times-is-warning-democrats-recent-polling-may-be-too-good-to-be-true-n626157

[massadvj]

Six weeks to go and they are already apologizing for the polling. At this point the polls do not reflect anything but the media's desire for there to be a "horse race" so that people will tune in. When DeSantis is only ahead by 5 in Florida (and Rubio by 2) the sampling must be skewed very heavily toward the Dems.

The more Biden stigmatizes MAGA, the more people are going to tell pollsters they are anti-MAGA in public but vote pro-MAGA in the voting booth.

[Free Vulcan]

And the Dems haven't been polling that great, even in blue states/districts. Lots of single digit leads.

All you can do is keep an eye on it and see what develops.