Ukraine 3

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

What if we have a civil war in Russia and get something worse than Putin? It has happened in Russia before.

[Hoodat]

Is that for real or is that from the BabylonBee???

The traditional flotilla of tanks in this year's Soviet Victory parade this year consisted of a lone T-34.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

What if we have a civil war in Russia and get something worse than Putin? It has happened in Russia before.

Any kind of civil war would rip their economy to shreds and make it almost impossible to continue the war effort in Ukraine.  If you want to use history as an example, the biggest immediate consequence of the 1917 November revolution was that Russia quickly signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and ended WWI because they couldn't maintain an international war and a civil war at the same time.

If some kind of civil war were to happen, I suspect one of the first things we'd see is a Chechen declaration of Independence, as Russia likely lacks the strength to suppress it again.

[PeteS in CA]

A Bakhmut Reversal?

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=54875

Over the last several months, Russia would grind out costly gains in the fighting around Bakhmut, only to see Ukraine reverse most or all of those gains a few days or weeks later. This pattern repeated for month after month, with Russia slowly grinding out costly net gains of territory in and around Bakhmut, without ever completely taking the city.

However, in the last 24 hours, Ukraine seems to have made significant gains around Bakhmut in the last 24 hours.

A Ukrainian military unit said on Wednesday it had routed a Russian infantry brigade from frontline territory near Bakhmut, claiming to confirm an account by the head of Russia’s Wagner private army that the Russian forces had fled.

Later in the day, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who heads Ukraine’s ground forces, said Russian units in some parts of Bakhmut had retreated by up to 2 km (1.2 miles) as the result of counterattacks. He did not give details.

Wagner units have led a months-long Russian assault on the eastern city, but Ukrainian forces say the offensive is stalling.

Summarizing this micro-Hell in a sentence, the Russians have been trying to take this town of little strtegic consequence since August 2022, and Ukraine has taken advantage of this obsession by inflicting constant heavy losses on the Russians in a place of little strategic value. As of a week or two ago, the Russian orcs had taken most of Bakhmut, but it looks like they've lost some of their gain in the past few days.

[Smokin Joe]

Any kind of civil war would rip their economy to shreds and make it almost impossible to continue the war effort in Ukraine.  If you want to use history as an example, the biggest immediate consequence of the 1917 November revolution was that Russia quickly signed the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and ended WWI because they couldn't maintain an international war and a civil war at the same time.

If some kind of civil war were to happen, I suspect one of the first things we'd see is a Chechen declaration of Independence, as Russia likely lacks the strength to suppress it again.

Consider that was the reason Kaiser Wilhelm sent for and sent Lenin to Russia: to destabilize the Tsar's government and render Russia ineffective in the war so he could concentrate on the West.

Indirectly, that makes the Kaiser partly responsible for tens of millions of deaths that followed, from the Oktober Revolution to the Holodomor and beyond.

[kevindavis007]

Warning
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656753624570032151?t=4qeaAGpdE2WXLBXkuWCL7g&s=19

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Warning
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656753624570032151?t=4qeaAGpdE2WXLBXkuWCL7g&s=19

The reality of war there. Very graphic video. Guys missing heads and legs.

Actually looks like a tank ran them over. Yikes.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656728041597313025

[sneakypete]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1656728041597313025

@kevindavis007

IF this is true,the next few news reports out of Russia should be VERY interesting.

[kevindavis007]

@kevindavis007

IF this is true,the next few news reports out of Russia should be VERY interesting.

@sneakypete


As you said if true, Bakhmut could be the 21st Century version of Stalingrad.

[kevindavis007]

The reality of war there. Very graphic video. Guys missing heads and legs.

Actually looks like a tank ran them over. Yikes.

I know we are laughing at the fact that Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine, but I kinda feel for the Russian troops. Note the word Kinda...

[Hoodat]

In Bakhmut, it took the Russians three months to advance one kilometer.  Ukraine took that kilometer back yesterday.

[sneakypete]

I know we are laughing at the fact that Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine, but I kinda feel for the Russian troops. Note the word Kinda...

@kevindavis007

I feel sorry for them,and don't mind admitting it. They were thrown into this war they don't understand and didn't volunteer to fight in,with  piss-poor leadership  more concerned with political tactics than military tactics,and are shot to death  by their "leadership" if they try to complain or dare to ask questions.

I know some here in the US will try to equate our previous "draft system" with what the Soviets are doing,but there is only the faintest similarity. For one thing,OUR draftees could and  would complain without worrying about being shot by their leaders. Or even put in a labor camp,something else that didn't happen to US draft resistors. Yes,SOME,a rare few,MIGHT have been given short prison or jail terms for resisting,but there is no comparison between that and what Russian resisters would face.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@kevindavis007

I feel sorry for them,and don't mind admitting it. They were thrown into this war they don't understand and didn't volunteer to fight in,with  piss-poor leadership  more concerned with political tactics than military tactics,and are shot to death  by their "leadership" if they try to complain or dare to ask questions.

I know some here in the US will try to equate our previous "draft system" with what the Soviets are doing,but there is only the faintest similarity. For one thing,OUR draftees could and  would complain without worrying about being shot by their leaders. Or even put in a labor camp,something else that didn't happen to US draft resistors. Yes,SOME,a rare few,MIGHT have been given short prison or jail terms for resisting,but there is no comparison between that and what Russian resisters would face.

There are surely some Russian troops who have zero desire to be there, and just want to go home.  I feel sorry for them.  There are also some nasty, bloodthirsty ones, and I hope it gets much worse for them.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/uamemesforces/status/1656665572749479937

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/EvaTrmx86qc7r/status/1656737514491609089

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I'm not saying Putin is equal to Hitler, but in terms of civilian interference in military decisions, his impact is very similar.  Russian generals have been so pressured to produce results that they keep attacking even when the loss ratios are horrible, and until they've expended every last shred of their reserves.

The far more flexible Ukrainian generals concentrate on inflicting disproportionate losses, giving ground as necessary.  Then when they see that the Russians are spent from their attack, they counterattack.  They recover ground far more cheaply than the Russians had to pay for it, and again inflict disproportionate casualties.

The Ukrainian advantage in having a real NCO corps also is huge on a small unit level.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-forces-cant-cope-with-ukrainian-ncos-enlisted-leader-says-2022-8

There are a bunch of pre-war articles going all the way back to 2014 about how the Ukrainians were breaking away from Soviet-era doctrine and building a modern NCO corps.  They started sending troops to NATO NCO schools, and those years of doctrinal and training changes have really paid off.

[kevindavis007]

HOLY S**t

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657024300660957185

[Kamaji]

I'm not saying Putin is equal to Hitler, but in terms of civilian interference in military decisions, his impact is very similar.  Russian generals have been so pressured to produce results that they keep attacking even when the loss ratios are horrible, and until they've expended every last shred of their reserves.

The far more flexible Ukrainian generals concentrate on inflicting disproportionate losses, giving ground as necessary.  Then when they see that the Russians are spent from their attack, they counterattack.  They recover ground far more cheaply than the Russians had to pay for it, and again inflict disproportionate casualties.

The Ukrainian advantage in having a real NCO corps also is huge on a small unit level.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-forces-cant-cope-with-ukrainian-ncos-enlisted-leader-says-2022-8

There are a bunch of pre-war articles going all the way back to 2014 about how the Ukrainians were breaking away from Soviet-era doctrine and building a modern NCO corps.  They started sending troops to NATO NCO schools, and those years of doctrinal and training changes have really paid off.

[kevindavis007]

HOLY S**t

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657024300660957185

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MK6TXMsvgQg

[kevindavis007]

Things seem to be falling apart for Russia:

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1657032769350819843

[Timber Rattler]

Fast moving action in Bakhmut apparently going on today...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1656717206833487874

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1657010670120972291

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1656985383391973376?s=20

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Fast moving action in Bakhmut apparently going on today...

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1656717206833487874

Worthwhile noting that this does not appear to be the main Ukrainian counteroffensive.  The numbers being described are much too small, and there are no reports of western tanks/armor.  This looks like just a counterattack of opportunity, likely based on intelligence that the Russian troops in that area are worn out, under-equipped and supplied, and with crappy morale.

They may be looking to see if the Russians pull troops out of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to try to hold the line.  If so, that will be the best opportunity for the Ukrainians to launch their counteroffensive.  Still a little bit early weather wise, though.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@sneakypete


As you said if true, Bakhmut could be the 21st Century version of Stalingrad.

The big Soviet counterattack at Stalingrad in November 1942 was Code named Operation Uranus.  And Uranus seems to be right where the Russians look to be taking it right about now.

[Kamaji]

The big Soviet counterattack at Stalingrad in November 1942 was Code named Operation Uranus.  And Uranus seems to be right where the Russians look to be taking it right about now.