Ukraine 3

[kevindavis007]

Check this out:


https://www.reddit.com/r/ADVChina/comments/12omgvr/russian_state_tv_now_shows_advertising_for/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

[Kamaji]

Two Russian power stations explode in huge fireballs after 'Ukrainian drone strikes' near border as Kyiv steps up plans for counteroffensive

Shocking footage showed a pair of infernos raging overnight at power stations
Belgorod's regional governor confirmed the attack late last night on social media

By WILL STEWART and JAMES REYNOLDS
17 April 2023

Two key electricity supply stations in Russia have been destroyed amid a suspected Ukrainian drone attack behind enemy lines.

Stunning footage taken overnight showed how the bombing of the power stations had created a huge inferno which spiralled high into the night sky.

The destruction of the sites in Igumenka and Dragunskoe - a pair of villages a few miles from Belgorod city - left thousands without power across the Belgorod region of Russia which borders eastern Ukraine, according to Baza media outlet which has close links to law enforcement.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11980355/Power-stations-explode-Russias-Belgorod-region-strikes-Ukrainian-drones.html

[Kamaji]

Ukraine could lose control of its skies within weeks leaving cities and nuclear power stations at risk of Russian bombardment and jeopardising a planned spring offensive, country's air force warns

Airforce warns VKS could break through Ukrainian lines if air defences dry up
Comments follow damning leaks of confidential Pentagon documents last week

By JAMES REYNOLDS
16 April 2023

Ukraine's air force has warned the country could lose air superiority by May amid concerns over its ability to mount an effective spring counteroffensive.

Russia has so far struggled to gain the upper hand in the skies, with Ukraine's anti-air systems and fighter jets keeping Russian gunships at bay since the initial invasion.

It comes after the leak of secret Pentagon documents last week, a damning development which revealed Ukraine could run out of S-300 AA missiles by 2 May.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11979779/Ukraine-lose-control-skies-weeks-countrys-air-force-warns.html

[Kamaji]

'I carried out the order and killed the children': 'Wagner ex-convict mercenaries' confess to killing women, pensioners and kids as young as FIVE

Two Wagner mercenaries are seen confessing to several murders in Ukraine
They say they were carrying out orders from Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin

By WILL STEWART and CHRIS JEWERS FOR MAILONLINE
18 April 2023

Two men claiming to be Russian unit commanders from the Wagner mercenary group have confessed to killing children, women and pensioners in Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine.

The chilling videos see the pair recounting the alleged executions of more than 20 Ukrainian children and teenagers, and the blowing up a pit in which more than 50 wounded Ukrainian prisoners had been dumped.

Others killed included those who refused to fight in Putin's war, they said.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11986027/Wagner-ex-convict-mercenaries-confess-killing-women-pensioners-children-young-FIVE.html

[Hoodat]

Two men claiming to be Russian unit commanders from the Wagner mercenary group have confessed to killing children, women and pensioners in Vladimir Putin's war with Ukraine.

The chilling videos see the pair recounting the alleged executions of more than 20 Ukrainian children and teenagers, and the blowing up a pit in which more than 50 wounded Ukrainian prisoners had been dumped.

"Liberators" and "protectors", according to one poster here.

[sneakypete]

@catfish1957

I would REALLY love to argue with you about our economic future versus that of China,but I can't. I even think you may be a little too optimistic.

[kevindavis007]

from r/ADVChina

https://www.reddit.com/r/ADVChina/comments/12s9qh3/new_leak_reveals_china_wanted_to_provide_lethal/

[DB]

from r/ADVChina

https://www.reddit.com/r/ADVChina/comments/12s9qh3/new_leak_reveals_china_wanted_to_provide_lethal/

China needs someone else to test their weapons on the battle field before they do on Taiwan. They don't want to do on the world stage what Russia did in Ukraine.

[Elderberry]

Has The Ukrainian Counteroffensive Already Begun?

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=54712

That’s the assertion of Reporting from Ukraine, who says that the counterattack is happening in Zaporizhzhia:


https://youtu.be/vcIhH1Vmz8I

Reporting from Ukraine is pretty rah-rah for Ukraine, always putting a positive spin on things (“Ukrainian troops successfully withdrew from northern Bakhmut”), but he’s good on reporting the nitty gritty details of tactical movement and seems to have direct sources in the Ukrainian military.

Takeaways:

•  He’s seeing Ukrainian forces advance all across the Zaporizhzhia front.

•  “The freshest reports suggest that Ukrainians breached the Russian defense in the trenches in front of Novodanylivka and got closer to Nesterianka and Kopani from the east.”

•  “Ukrainian presence was also noted in the southern part of Kamianske, which means that Russians highly likely abandoned Piatykhatky as well.”

•  “Ukrainian Head of Melitopol reported that Russians announced an urgent evacuation from all settlements between Vasylivka and Tokmak, in fear that this may very soon become the most active battleground.”
 
•  “In order to prevent the accumulation of a critical amount of heavy equipment in the region, Russian forces started to actively use guided air bombs. These bombs weigh from 500 to 1500 kilograms and have a range of up to 40 kilometers, which poses a significant threat to Ukrainian plans. The craters from the explosions are enormous and can reach up to 50 meters in diameter.” I’m guessing these might be KAB-1500Ls.

•  “Ukrainians are trying to reciprocate the damage and are also identifying and destroying Russian warehouses with ammunition and equipment.”

More at link.

[kevindavis007]

Just wow...

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1649150412744716311

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Has The Ukrainian Counteroffensive Already Begun?

https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=54712

That’s the assertion of Reporting from Ukraine, who says that the counterattack is happening in Zaporizhzhia:


https://youtu.be/vcIhH1Vmz8I

Reporting from Ukraine is pretty rah-rah for Ukraine, always putting a positive spin on things (“Ukrainian troops successfully withdrew from northern Bakhmut”), but he’s good on reporting the nitty gritty details of tactical movement and seems to have direct sources in the Ukrainian military.

Takeaways:

•  He’s seeing Ukrainian forces advance all across the Zaporizhzhia front.

•  “The freshest reports suggest that Ukrainians breached the Russian defense in the trenches in front of Novodanylivka and got closer to Nesterianka and Kopani from the east.”

•  “Ukrainian presence was also noted in the southern part of Kamianske, which means that Russians highly likely abandoned Piatykhatky as well.”

•  “Ukrainian Head of Melitopol reported that Russians announced an urgent evacuation from all settlements between Vasylivka and Tokmak, in fear that this may very soon become the most active battleground.”
 
•  “In order to prevent the accumulation of a critical amount of heavy equipment in the region, Russian forces started to actively use guided air bombs. These bombs weigh from 500 to 1500 kilograms and have a range of up to 40 kilometers, which poses a significant threat to Ukrainian plans. The craters from the explosions are enormous and can reach up to 50 meters in diameter.” I’m guessing these might be KAB-1500Ls.

•  “Ukrainians are trying to reciprocate the damage and are also identifying and destroying Russian warehouses with ammunition and equipment.”

More at link.

I was hearing the same thing earlier today.  If they've started this attack, it is the major strategic counterattack, and illustrates why they kept defending Bakhmut.  If it is successful, I think it could lead to a negotiated settlement because it could lead to the complete isolation of Crimea except by naval transport, which would be risky.

[kevindavis007]

Car bomb:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1649138302203883523

[kevindavis007]

I was hearing the same thing earlier today.  If they've started this attack, it is the major strategic counterattack, and illustrates why they kept defending Bakhmut.  If it is successful, I think it could lead to a negotiated settlement because it could lead to the complete isolation of Crimea except by naval transport, which would be risky.

I think that is the goal. If they go down that area, Crimea is boxed in and Putin is f*ked even more. Russia can't afford to lose more ships.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I think that is the goal. If they go down that area, Crimea is boxed in and Putin is f*ked even more. Russia can't afford to lose more ships.

Yup.  Crimea is dependent upon water from a canal from the Dnipro.  If the Ukes get close to Melitopol, the Russians will lose their last land route into the west, and will have to pull back from the south bank of the Dnipro.  That gives control of the canal back to the Ukrainians, and Crimea is suddenly in a really bad spot because the Kerch bridge will then be in range of Uke rocket artillery as well.

That would be a massive defeat for Russia -- disaster-level stuff.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Been reading some of the pro-Russian people talking up the ability of the T-55's to be used as fixed emplacements in trenches even if they're too old to be used as actual tanks.  The problem is that Zaporizhzhia is the freaking steppe -- completely wide open and as flat as Shelley Duval.  Any static defense can be bypassed, and all of those T-55 emplacements become useless the moment they are outflanked.  In that kind of terrain, penetrations and the subsequent outflanking is inevitable.  Mobile defense is the only thing that works.

You can supplement mobile defensive units with advanced triangular strongpoint systems, but I haven't seen the Russians doing any of that, anywhere.  They're all just linear trenches, probably because they're just not trained or experienced enough at the small unit level to pull that off.

[catfish1957]

This Bolograd blast is an interesting development.  3 biggest questions in mind:

(1) Do the Uke's lose the high road, and court of popular opinion  by taking the fight across the border?
(2) Does it galvanize the Russian people war resolve and create goodwill toward Putin. support.
(3) Does this make the Russians more war weary, and hurt the war effort and Putin.

In any case, this is an escalation, that is not helpful for the  region.

[kevindavis007]

Yup.  Crimea is dependent upon water from a canal from the Dnipro.  If the Ukes get close to Melitopol, the Russians will lose their last land route into the west, and will have to pull back from the south bank of the Dnipro.  That gives control of the canal back to the Ukrainians, and Crimea is suddenly in a really bad spot because the Kerch bridge will then be in range of Uke rocket artillery as well.

That would be a massive defeat for Russia -- disaster-level stuff.

I'm pretty sure Ukraine will destroy that bridge if that happens.

[kevindavis007]

This Bolograd blast is an interesting development.  3 biggest questions in mind:

(1) Do the Uke's lose the high road, and court of popular opinion  by taking the fight across the border?
(2) Does it galvanize the Russian people war resolve and create goodwill toward Putin. support.
(3) Does this make the Russians more war weary, and hurt the war effort and Putin.

In any case, this is an escalation, that is not helpful for the  region.

I think the third option.  From what I'm seeing it was a car bomb so I wonder if anti-Putin forces are doing it.


We shall see about the escalation.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

This Bolograd blast is an interesting development.  3 biggest questions in mind:

(1) Do the Uke's lose the high road, and court of popular opinion  by taking the fight across the border?
(2) Does it galvanize the Russian people war resolve and create goodwill toward Putin. support.
(3) Does this make the Russians more war weary, and hurt the war effort and Putin.

In any case, this is an escalation, that is not helpful for the  region.

I clicked on the tweet, and there seems to be some suggestion this wasn't the Ukrainians.  Explosion apparently happened immediately after Russian military planes flew overhead, so it could have been an accident.

The bomb seems to have gone off at night, in the street.  Not a building, and not during daytime when it might have caused a lot of casualties.   Not really any kind of actual targeting that makes an sense.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I'm pretty sure Ukraine will destroy that bridge if that happens.

That's certainly the threat, isn't it?  But that's also a nice little dagger to have at Russia's throat as a threat to negotiate.

[kevindavis007]

https://twitter.com/TheresaAFallon/status/1649028612841000960

[kevindavis007]

That's certainly the threat, isn't it?  But that's also a nice little dagger to have at Russia's throat as a threat to negotiate.

I don't think the first explosion on the bridge was done by Ukraine.  They would have destroyed it the first time around.

[catfish1957]

I clicked on the tweet, and there seems to be some suggestion this wasn't the Ukrainians.  Explosion apparently happened immediately after Russian military planes flew overhead, so it could have been an accident.

The bomb seems to have gone off at night, in the street.  Not a building, and not during daytime when it might have caused a lot of casualties.   Not really any kind of actual targeting that makes an sense.

That makes sense. 

[DB]

I clicked on the tweet, and there seems to be some suggestion this wasn't the Ukrainians.  Explosion apparently happened immediately after Russian military planes flew overhead, so it could have been an accident.

The bomb seems to have gone off at night, in the street.  Not a building, and not during daytime when it might have caused a lot of casualties.   Not really any kind of actual targeting that makes an sense.

It's pretty clear that the bomb went off under the surface causing the large displacement of dirt. There's video of the explosion and there is a large amount of dirt thrown up in the air but not a large fireball or flash. Had the explosion that large been on the surface the nearby buildings would have been heavily damaged.

The suggestion is something fell off a Russian plane and penetrated the earth before detonating.

So just more Russian incompetence.

[Kamaji]

It's pretty clear that the bomb went off under the surface causing the large displacement of dirt. There's video of the explosion and there is a large amount of dirt thrown up in the air but not a large fireball or flash. Had the explosion that large been on the surface the nearby buildings would have been heavily damaged.

The suggestion is something fell off a Russian plane and penetrated the earth before detonating.

So just more Russian incompetence.