Ukraine 3

[Hoodat]

Ukraine says it has been forced to alter its plans for a spring counteroffensive after a leak of classified US intelligence documents revealed top secret military details, according to a report.

The incompetence on display from this regime is reminiscent of the Italian campaigns in Greece and Libya in 1941.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The incompetence on display from this regime is reminiscent of the Italian campaigns in Greece and Libya in 1941.

Graziani definitely in the conversation for the worst general of WW2

[sneakypete]

What's funny is that talking about all the defenses they've prepared in the Crimean peninsula means they think they're going to lose Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

The problem with that for the Russians is twofold.  First, Crimea has no rivers and is essentially dependent on a water canal from the Dnipro.  If Ukraine takes Kherson/Zaporizhzhia, they can cut that off.  The second problem is that taking Zaporizhzhia puts the Kerch bridge within range of Iraqi artillery/missiles.  If they take that out, Crimea is cut off completely except for whatever they can supply by sea.

That is really the path for potential peace.  It would force Russia to agree to a peace in which they get to keep Crimea, but otherwise lose the other land they took.

@Maj. Bill Martin

I am not so sure of that. ALL the dedicated Soviets live in a fantasy world where everybody is wrong and evil but them.

Kinda like the DNC.

[Elderberry]

Ukraine war: Leak shows Western special forces on the ground

BBC By Paul Adams & George Wright 4/11/2023

The UK is among a number of countries with military special forces operating inside Ukraine, according to one of dozens of documents leaked online.

It confirms what has been the subject of quiet speculation for over a year.

The leaked files, some marked "top secret", paint a detailed picture of the war in Ukraine, including sensitive details of Ukraine's preparations for a spring counter-offensive.

The US government says it is investigating the source of the leak.

According to the document, dated 23 March, the UK has the largest contingent of special forces in Ukraine (50), followed by fellow Nato states Latvia (17), France (15), the US (14) and the Netherlands (1).

The document does not say where the forces are located or what they are doing.

The numbers of personnel may be small, and will doubtless fluctuate. But special forces are by their very nature highly effective. Their presence in Ukraine is likely to be seized upon by Moscow, which has in recent months argued that it is not just confronting Ukraine, but Nato as well.

More: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65245065

[kevindavis007]

The founder of a fintech company in Ukraine is offering a $500,000 prize for the first to land a drone in Moscow's Red Square


A Ukrainian fintech founder and drone developer is offering about $540,000 in prize money to the winner of a race to land a drone on Moscow's Red Square.


Volodymyr Yatsenko, the co-founder of Monobank, a Ukrainian online banking service, announced the competition in a Facebook post last week. The competition is open to any Ukrainian drone developers and will take place on May 9, according to the Ukrainian Military Center, a Ukrainian news outlet covering defense.


May 9 in Russia is Victory Day, a time when the country celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.


More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-founder-of-a-fintech-company-in-ukraine-is-offering-a-500000-prize-for-the-first-to-land-a-drone-in-moscows-red-square/ar-AA19GQiX




Hope it hits Lenins tomb.....

[Kamaji]

Horrifying video appears to show Russian soldier beheading Ukrainian POW

By Snejana Farberov
April 12, 2023

An appalling video emerged Tuesday showing what appears to be a Russian soldier savagely beheading a Ukrainian prisoner of war with a knife, leading Kyiv to compare Vladimir Putin’s regime to ISIS.

The footage, which has been circulating on pro-Russian Telegram channels, shows an apparent Russian serviceman slicing into the neck of a captive wearing a yellow armband associated with Ukrainian forces.

The unidentified victim is still alive at the start of the decapitation and is heard begging: “It hurts, stop.”

The executioner’s comrades cheer him on in the background, urging him to “f—ing cut it, break the spine! What, have you never cut off heads before?”

Another person speaking in Russian off-camera suggests placing the POW’s severed head in a bag and “sending it to the commander.”

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/04/12/video-appears-to-show-russian-troop-beheading-ukrainian-pow/

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Maj. Bill Martin

I am not so sure of that. ALL the dedicated Soviets live in a fantasy world where everybody is wrong and evil but them.

Kinda like the DNC.

@sneakypete

I'm not sure of it either.  Just pointing out that it is a possible path to peace.   The Ukrainians aren't going to just give up, but Russia won't accept complete defeat either. 

Ukraine restoring the status quo that existed prior to the war in the south, and then some haggling over the Donbass, is at least a potential framework for a possible settlement.  Russia obviously wouldn't have accomplished the conquest they intended, but could at least try to spin it as "we denazified Ukraine and got them to recognize Crimea."

[DB]

What about the massive damage and death Russia did to Ukraine? There has to be consequences.

[catfish1957]

@sneakypete

I'm not sure of it either.  Just pointing out that it is a possible path to peace.   The Ukrainians aren't going to just give up, but Russia won't accept complete defeat either. 

Ukraine restoring the status quo that existed prior to the war in the south, and then some haggling over the Donbass, is at least a potential framework for a possible settlement.  Russia obviously wouldn't have accomplished the conquest they intended, but could at least try to spin it as "we denazified Ukraine and got them to recognize Crimea."

If you believe Carlson's interview with Trump last night, it appears sales of weapons left in Afghanistan are feeding the Russian war effort.  We basically have our own tax dollars fighting each other.   

[Maj. Bill Martin]

If you believe Carlson's interview with Trump last night....

I'd believe anything said in Carlson's interviews with Trump to the same degree I believe anything said in Carlson's interviews with MacGregor.

[Kamaji]

Russia has suffered devastating losses to its elite Spetsnaz commando units that could take a decade to replenish after bungling commanders sent them to help failing frontline infantry, leaked US documents reveal

Assessment says it will take Moscow years to replenish its special forces units
This is after Russian commanders sent Spetsnaz troops into direct combat

By CHRIS JEWERS FOR MAILONLINE
14 April 2023

Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has devastated Russia's clandestine special (Spetsnaz) forces, classified American documents that were leaked online reported.

According to the assessment, it will take Moscow years to rebuild its Spetsnaz units back to their former strength after they were sent to the frontlines in Ukraine by Putin's bungling commanders to prop up their failing frontline infantry.

The leak first became widely known about a week ago, setting Washington on edge about the damage they may have caused to Ukraine's war effort. The episode embarrassed the US by revealing its spying on allies and Kyiv's vulnerabilities.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11972411/Russia-suffered-devastating-losses-elite-Spetsnaz-units-leaked-documents-reveal.html

[Maj. Bill Martin]

What about the massive damage and death Russia did to Ukraine? There has to be consequences.

Sure -- if you're talking about continuing economic pressure, etc..  But the odds of getting any kind of compensation/reconstruction for Ukraine are nonexistent.   It just isn't possible because there is no means of forcing them to pay absent invading and conquering Russia, and that rightly is not on the table.

[catfish1957]

I'd believe anything said in Carlson's interviews with Trump to the same degree I believe anything said in Carlson's interviews with MacGregor.

Fair enough...  but is there any credence to the supposed leak that had Ukraine was pretty much a lost cause?  That's 2 dots.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Fair enough...  but is there any credence to the supposed leak that had Ukraine was pretty much a lost cause?  That's 2 dots.

From my understanding of the documents, the overall assessment is that both the Ukrainian and the Russians are in worse shape than was publicly believed.  Not sure it's really a change in the overall balance of forces from what was understood previously.

[Kamaji]

From my understanding of the documents, the overall assessment is that both the Ukrainian and the Russians are in worse shape than was publicly believed.  Not sure it's really a change in the overall balance of forces from what was understood previously.

[catfish1957]

From my understanding of the documents, the overall assessment is that both the Ukrainian and the Russians are in worse shape than was publicly believed.  Not sure it's really a change in the overall balance of forces from what was understood previously.

True.  I think I heard Carlson last night use words akin to perpetual stalemate. 

How much is that gonna cost?

[Kamaji]

Any potential stalemate in Ukraine will last only so long as Putin, the Chief Orc, is in power.

[Kamaji]

Ukraine pulls back as Russia mounts ‘re-energized’ Bakhmut assault

By Olivia Land
April 14, 2023

Ukrainian troops pulled back from some territory in Bakhmut this week as Russia launched a “re-energized” assault on the Donetsk Oblast battlefield city, British intelligence said Friday.

“Russia has re-energized its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian [Ministry of Defense] and Wagner Group have improved cooperation,” the update read.

“Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede,” it continued.

“The Ukrainian defense still holds the western districts of the town but has been subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours.”

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/04/14/ukraine-pulls-back-as-russia-mounts-renewed-bakhmut-assault/

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Ukraine pulls back as Russia mounts ‘re-energized’ Bakhmut assault

By Olivia Land
April 14, 2023

Ukrainian troops pulled back from some territory in Bakhmut this week as Russia launched a “re-energized” assault on the Donetsk Oblast battlefield city, British intelligence said Friday.

“Russia has re-energized its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian [Ministry of Defense] and Wagner Group have improved cooperation,” the update read.

“Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede,” it continued.

“The Ukrainian defense still holds the western districts of the town but has been subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours.”

*  *  *

Source:  https://nypost.com/2023/04/14/ukraine-pulls-back-as-russia-mounts-renewed-bakhmut-assault/

The Russians always have the capability to strip ammo and assets from other locations and concentrate them in Bakhmut if they choose to do so, just as Ukraine could choose to pour a bunch of reserve units if they so choose.  Hard to tell from the outside whether or not this is good for Russia, or just them doubling down on stupid.  I suspect the latter but we'll have to wait and see.

[240B]

The Russians always have the capability to strip ammo and assets from other locations and concentrate them in Bakhmut if they choose to do so, just as Ukraine could choose to pour a bunch of reserve units if they so choose.  Hard to tell from the outside whether or not this is good for Russia, or just them doubling down on stupid.  I suspect the latter but we'll have to wait and see.

I agree. Well known military strategy when the enemy is conducting a 're-energized assault' to fall back and let them. Then they get thin and overextended on the frontlines and are vulnerable to a flanking attack. Welcome to my parlor, said the spider to the fly.

You can come in all you want. But you cannot leave. I would be careful if I was Russia when something is too easy. But then, Russia is not known for 'caution'.

[sneakypete]

Russia has suffered devastating losses to its elite Spetsnaz commando units that could take a decade to replenish after bungling commanders sent them to help failing frontline infantry, leaked US documents reveal

Assessment says it will take Moscow years to replenish its special forces units
This is after Russian commanders sent Spetsnaz troops into direct combat

By CHRIS JEWERS FOR MAILONLINE
14 April 2023

Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has devastated Russia's clandestine special (Spetsnaz) forces, classified American documents that were leaked online reported.

According to the assessment, it will take Moscow years to rebuild its Spetsnaz units back to their former strength after they were sent to the frontlines in Ukraine by Putin's bungling commanders to prop up their failing frontline infantry.

The leak first became widely known about a week ago, setting Washington on edge about the damage they may have caused to Ukraine's war effort. The episode embarrassed the US by revealing its spying on allies and Kyiv's vulnerabilities.

*  *  *

Source:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11972411/Russia-suffered-devastating-losses-elite-Spetsnaz-units-leaked-documents-reveal.html

@Kamaji

Oh,it's going to take a LOT more than a decade to replace them because for all practical purposes,there is no one left with any experience to do the training because all the experienced Spetnaz NCO's that are still alive will be busy running actual missions.

AND......these are NOT people you can replace overnight by calling for volunteers

Also,I SUSPECT it's going to hard to find volunteers for Spetnaz duty. Don't kid yourself,the rest of the Soviet infantry knows what went on,and knows those people were sacrificed for political expedience in order to shore up an insane leadership.

Nobody that wants to keep living is going to talk about how Putin is batshit crazy in public,but Russians are no different than anyone else. Amongst trusted friends, they will say what they are really thinking.

[sneakypete]

Sure -- if you're talking about continuing economic pressure, etc..  But the odds of getting any kind of compensation/reconstruction for Ukraine are nonexistent.   It just isn't possible because there is no means of forcing them to pay absent invading and conqu
ering Russia, and that rightly is not on the table.

@Maj. Bill Martin

There is also the question "Does Russia even have enough money to pay for any compensation/reconstruction?

After all,the whole point of the invasion was to gain access to territories and assets that would enrich Russia. Putin has pretty much set fire to any  chance of Ukraine entering any sort of economic partnership  with them.

Remember,Communism ONLY "works" if other nations supply them with the things they want and need for free.


THAT duck has  already flown away.

[sneakypete]

Any potential stalemate in Ukraine will last only so long as Putin, the Chief Orc, is in power.

@Kamaji

Sooner or later some of the older powerbrokers in the Kremlin are going to forced to grow a pair,and back Putin against  a wall.

The thing is even if this happens,Russia will still be a communist country,and NO communist country can survive without  the support of another communist country,and I just don't see the geezers in power giving up their pet dictatorship.

This MIGHT happen after all the politiburo geezers have died off and a new generation takes over,but don't hold your breath  waiting for it to happen.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

@Maj. Bill Martin

There is also the question "Does Russia even have enough money to pay for any compensation/reconstruction?

After all,the whole point of the invasion was to gain access to territories and assets that would enrich Russia. Putin has pretty much set fire to any  chance of Ukraine entering any sort of economic partnership  with them.

Remember,Communism ONLY "works" if other nations supply them with the things they want and need for free.


THAT duck has  already flown away.

@sneakypete

Exactly.  And I'm not a war-monger trying to back Russia into a corner in which it's survival is literally at stake.  Reparations just aren't going to happen.   I just want the war to end with Ukraine still standing, and Russia not profiting from its choice to bringing systemic, organized murder back to Europe out of greed.

[sneakypete]

@sneakypete

Exactly.  And I'm not a war-monger trying to back Russia into a corner in which it's survival is literally at stake.  Reparations just aren't going to happen.   I just want the war to end with Ukraine still standing, and Russia not profiting from its choice to bringing systemic, organized murder back to Europe out of greed.

@Maj. Bill Martin

I'm with ya 100 percent on that one!

The WORSE thing Ukraine of any of her allies could do would be to invade Russia. That would make Putin suddenly look like a hero,and practically everybody in Russia would stand behind him.

*I* THINK the best possible result would be a cessation of all hostilites,with Russia drawing back inside Russian borders.

There is no way in HELL that Putin or the other hard-line "communism for everybody but me" geezers could ever survive the "Great and Mighty USSR" being fought to a draw by a tiny (by comparison) country like Ukraine.

After all the war was supposed to be over in just a couple of week,resulting in a might victory for Putin,right?