Satellite Images Show A Russian Buildup In Belarus. Experts Say It May Be A Bluff.
https://www.rferl.org/a/satellite-images-russia-buildup-belarus/32121143.htmlWhen Russia held large-scale military exercises in Belarus in February, the two countries described them as defensive in nature, aimed at repelling outside aggression, namely from Ukraine and NATO.
But as the exercises wound down, many of the 30,000 Russian troops stationed in Belarus then poured over the border of Ukraine as part of President Vladimir Putin's invasion, now in its eighth month.
New satellite imagery obtained by RFE/RL's Belarus Service shows thousands of Russian troops may have returned to Belarus, raising questions about whether another incursion into Ukraine from the north is imminent -- or if Moscow, with the help of Minsk, is merely trying to distract Kyiv.
The Russians "don't have enough combat power to launch an offensive [from Belarus], and there are no vital Ukrainian points nearby," said Mark Cancian, a military analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Russian forces have suffered significant losses in manpower and equipment since September, when Ukraine launched a counteroffensive that continues in the Donbas in the east and Kherson in the south.
"The Russians probably want to distract Ukrainians and pull some of their forces away from Kherson and the Donbas," Cancian told RFE/RL.
Tent EncampmentsSatellite imagery captured by the commercial company Planet Lab on October 31 and obtained by RFE/RL shows Russia has set up more than 300 tents in three locations over the past month to temporarily house soldiers at three training grounds in Belarus.
They included at least 190 tents at Abuz-Lyasnouski in western Belarus where ground forces train, 35 in Repishcha in central Belarus where artillery forces exercise, and 80 in Lasvida outside Minsk where airborne forces train.
Abuz-Lyasnouski is the southernmost of the locations, located about 160 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border.
Hundreds of pieces of military hardware, including trucks and some howitzers, have arrived at the bases as well, according to the images.
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