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Author Topic: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538  (Read 775 times)

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Offline mystery-ak

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Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« on: July 27, 2022, 09:55:48 pm »
Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
By Jack Dutton On 7/27/22 at 8:05 AM EDT

For the first time, political polling website FiveThirtyEight shows the Democrats with an edge in the race for the U.S. Senate in November.

The website late on Tuesday showed the Democrats had a 52 percent chance of keeping the Senate majority, while the Republicans had a 48 chance.

There had been consensus for a long time that the Republicans will win back the Senate this fall, buoyed by high inflation and economic downturn under Democrat Joe Biden's presidency.

FiveThirtyEight believes that the Republicans have selected some "weak candidates" in some key races, meaning that they are less likely to take the upper chamber than previously predicted.

The website's Senate forecast has changed since it began polling in early June. Back then, the Democrats were only predicted to have a 40 percent chance to keeping the Senate, with the Republicans 60 percent chance of taking it. Since then, the Democrats have grown in popularity and now for the first time have overtaken the Republicans, and are on course to keep the Senate.

The Senate elections will be held on November 8, with 35 of the Senate seats being contested in regular elections, and the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2023. Of the 35 seats, 21 are Republican-held and 14 are Democratic-held.

The Democrats currently have a wafer-thin majority in the Senate, with 48 seats, two independents, and a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris. The Republicans have 50 seats.

more
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-favored-win-senate-first-time-538-1728325?piano_t=1
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2022, 09:57:32 pm »
I know it's Newseek and 538 but they are right about one thing...Repubs have picked some very weak candidates like Walker and Oz... :shrug:
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Offline Kamaji

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2022, 10:43:17 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on July 27, 2022, 09:57:32 pm
I know it's Newseek and 538 but they are right about one thing...Repubs have picked some very weak candidates like Walker and Oz... :shrug:

Unfortunately that is all too true. 
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Offline LMAO

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2022, 10:47:37 pm »
Quote from: Kamaji on July 27, 2022, 10:43:17 pm
Unfortunately that is all too true.

Unless something drastically changes, I don’t see Walker or Oz going to the Senate.

Anything is possible but I’m not betting they’ll win. We’ll have to try again for the Senate next time

The HOR is a different story, though. The GOP will do well there plus some state races
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2022, 10:51:59 pm »
This is the GOP's election to lose, the Democrats' to steal.

Typically, the GOP is relying on the 'not democrat' vote,

and the democrats are setting up the point spread with polls.

What could possibly go wrong?
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2022, 10:54:41 pm »
Quote from: LMAO on July 27, 2022, 10:47:37 pm
Unless something drastically changes, I don’t see Walker or Oz going to the Senate.

Anything is possible but I’m not betting they’ll win. We’ll have to try again for the Senate next time

The HOR is a different story, though. The GOP will do well there plus some state races

I agree we win the House....but not the Senate and pray Brandon doesn't have to replace, impeach or add a Justice on SCOTUS.
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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2022, 03:00:49 pm »
Well... the nation slipping into recession may also affect things. A lot can happen in a few months.
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Offline LMAO

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2022, 03:03:18 pm »
Quote from: Weird Tolkienish Figure on July 28, 2022, 03:00:49 pm
Well... the nation slipping into recession may also affect things. A lot can happen in a few months.

And predicted food and fuel shortages coming this fall will also affect things
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2022, 03:03:57 pm »
What's the point of electing Republicans who get in bed with Democrats at every opportunity?
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Offline Weird Tolkienish Figure

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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2022, 03:04:11 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on July 27, 2022, 10:54:41 pm
I agree we win the House....but not the Senate and pray Brandon doesn't have to replace, impeach or add a Justice on SCOTUS.

If we win the HOR he can't impeach, period. And conviction is pretty much off the table.

OTOH, we need more than a simple majority to stop a USSC justice IMO due to people like Romney.
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Re: Democrats Favored to Win Senate for First Time as Polling Improves: 538
« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2022, 08:08:55 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on July 27, 2022, 09:57:32 pm
I know it's Newseek and 538 but they are right about one thing...Repubs have picked some very weak candidates like Walker and Oz... :shrug:

The GOPe wants to elect McCainiacs to Attorney General, US Senator and Governor in Arizona.  The McCainiacs have been running nothing but negative ads on the good guys (who are leading anyway, despite the McCainiacs' best efforts).
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