Democrats see one chance to outperform Biden's dismal polling in November
by Christian Datoc, White House Reporter |
| July 27, 2022 07:00 AM
An analysis of recent elections shows that Democrats' chances of holding onto one or both congressional majorities might be better than previously expected, even with President Joe Biden's support in free fall.
Biden's poll numbers have cratered in recent months, with any number of aggregates showing his approval currently hovering between 30% and 40%.
However, one analysis concluded Tuesday that generic congressional ballot polling, which asks respondents if they would vote for a nameless Republican or Democrat running in their district, is a significantly more accurate predictor of midterm results than presidential approval ratings.
Across the previous four elections, FiveThirtyEight found, generic polling "missed" the House national popular vote margin by 2.5 points on average, compared to a 5.5 point average margin of error for presidential approval ratings.
That would mean Democrats are significantly more competitive with Republicans in 2022 than Biden's numbers suggest. Democrats trail on generic ballots by just 1 point heading into late July. For comparison, Biden's current net approval rating of minus 19 points marks the worst differential recorded by any president at this point in his term, dating back to Harry Truman.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/democrats-see-one-chance-to-outperform-bidens-dismal-polling-in-november
