Roughly speaking, this ought to be good in the short term. The price of beef should come way down as all this volume hits the market.
That may prove to cause a shortage in the long term - driving beef back up... But that is not necessarily so. Cattle country is vast, and up here in the north, we are having an excellent year - Here it is, almost august, and we are still verdant green. Excellent first cut... Second cut coming in right now. Water and rain have been and continue to be no problem.
So the stock is there to replenish the desert southwest. No doubt Texans will pay a premium as demand drives yearling prices up. And the delivery to market can be supplied - Perhaps not entirely, but significantly, by the Northwest.
Prices certainly could go up but they will go way down first, as all this beef gluts the market. And the eventual high price counts on shortage because the Southwest has liquidated...That shortage is limited because the Northwest can take up the slack, along with South American beef. That probably will not happen this fall - The west will look to sell rather than feed em through the winter, but the glut from the South will just be hitting the market... So the price will be too low, and we have hay... So predictably they will winter, and next try to sell in the spring.
Spring will want the sell, as the glut will be over, the south will be buying to replenish, so what is wintered will bring a good price in the spring.
So watch the price and understand - Right now (next 90 days) the price of beef should plummet. The sell off in the desert south providing more than the market needs, lowering the price. That condition should remain through the next 90 days, well into or through the winter. Demand will go up in the spring, but may well be met by over-wintered beef from the northwest hitting the market.
So the price should be offset by high market value right now, dropping to a normal-to-low market value in the fall, causing a winter-over in the west, to provide volume in the spring, just as prices begin to climb. That feels like prices will drop soon, and stay moderate through the spring.
Next summer may see increase... Because wintered two-year cattle generally drive the market in the spring, but may well be sucked up at good price to replenish the southwest, leading to fair demand.
But I will bet none of that will translate to the market. I bet prices will stay high, because liberals want beef to go away. I bet the price will be artificially elevated and beef will stay high regardless of the massive glut that is hitting the market.