Recession May Already Be Here
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Jul 18, 2022 - 07:38 AM
Authored by Daniel Lacalle,
The debate about recession risk is pointless. We are already in a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) in the United States declined at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.
The Atlanta Fed Nowcast shows a 1.5% contraction in the second quarter. But the underlying figures are scarier. According to the Atlanta Fed, “the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is -1.5% on July 15, down from -1.2% on July 8”. That is an enormous negative change, -0.3% of GDP, in one week.
They go on to say that “the nowcast of second quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.9% and -13.7%, respectively, to 1.5% and -13.8%, respectively”.
Investment is collapsing, consumption is barely kept alive and if we look at other components, imports are soaring while exports rise less than expected.
more
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-may-already-be-here
