Build a Fleet that Contests Every Inch
Disaggregated forces would provide U.S. Navy commanders with more options to deter China.
By Commander Bryan Clark, U.S. Navy (Retired)
July 2022 Proceedings Vol. 148/7/1,433
China’s coast guard and maritime militia have mounted what essentially is an insurgency in the East and South China Seas for nearly 15 years, building artificial maritime features, blocking access to fishing areas, intruding into neighbors’ waters, and occupying disputed islands. This gray zone campaign at sea and ashore has brought China into tension with Indonesia, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and the Philippines and helped Beijing set the terms of each confrontation.1
Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. military has planned its forces against “worst-case” scenarios with regional powers such as Iraq, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.2 The Department of Defense (DoD) has continued using that approach regarding China, focused on a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. But with a significant advantage in the military balance, proximity to contested areas, and a comprehensive national military on par with the United States, China has a range of options for taking control of Taiwan.
Instead of pursuing a risky invasion of Formosa, leaders in Beijing are more likely to ramp up their insurgent tactics by seizing outlying islands, conducting cyberattacks or economic warfare, blockading Taiwan, or establishing a quarantine as the United States did against Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis.3 These protracted and lower-intensity campaigns would stress the capacity of U.S. and allied militaries, especially naval forces, and require less escalatory capabilities that do not enable the Chinese government to portray the United States as an aggressor. These tactics also would offer a more gradual transition from today’s gray zone, enabling China to increase the pressure on Taiwan without a defining event that could trigger a full-scale U.S. or allied response.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2022/july/build-fleet-contests-every-inch
