Democrats' worst Trump nightmare
Mike Allen
Mike Allen, author of Axios AM
There's something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that's rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends:
The big picture: It's the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, filibuster-proof Senate majority in January 2025.
Why it matters: It's impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm.
"Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster," Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring
"The 2024 map is much worse," Bazelon added.
A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada.
In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell.
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https://www.axios.com/democrat-senate-trump-republicans-ce402871-8dd3-4a52-8843-0673377b78df.html
