https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-jump-as-investors-monitor-russia-ukraine-war-await-fed-meeting-11647257310?mod=mw_latestnews<snipit>
Treasury yields jumped early Monday, with the rate on the 10-year note touching its highest since July 2019, as investors assessed developments in the Russia-Ukraine war and awaited this week’s pivotal meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers.
What’s driving the market?
What's driving the Market?
Treasury yields, which had fallen sharply in the wake of Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine as investors piled into government debt and other traditional havens, have taken back all ground lost and then some. Investor risk appetite appeared strong early Monday, as stock-index futures pointed to solid gains for U.S. equities.
Analysts said optimism over a fourth round of talks that were under way between Russian and Ukraine officials appeared to boost risk appetite despite a brutal weekend that saw Russian forces intensify their attacks on Ukrainian cities. A Russian airstrike on a Ukrainian military training center near Ukraine’s border with Poland, a NATO member, came after Moscow warned the West that it would consider arms deliveries to Ukraine as legitimate targets.
China, meanwhile, locked down the key southeastern manufacturing hub of Shenzhen as it also combats a COVID outbreak in the northeast of the country.
The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a quarter-point increase to the fed-funds rate when it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will be focused on clues to the pace and scope of future rate increases as well as plans to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet.
The Fed was already set to deal with persistently high inflation. The Russian invasion complicates the picture, further stoking inflation as oil and other commodity prices soar, but also threatening economic growth as consumers get squeezed.
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I don't want to get people's hopes up too much, but seeing Western Market reactions to news, is often the best barometer to determine how news is going to play out for the next few days, and especially in Ukraine. Here are three numbers this morning, which really drive that point home.
WTI- $104.75/bbl down almost 5% today.
Gold- $1,968/oz. Was at $2040/oz last week.
VIX- Has dropped from nearly 40 a week ago, to nearer 30. This at least in the short term indicates calmer markets.
The really big news in the next few weeks is how the Fed handles rate increases (or lack of)
