The curious case of
Russia’s missing air force
Experts had expected the invaders to use their planes to pick off Ukraine’s forces at will
Military aircraft on display at the museum complex of the Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company (UMMC) during Russian Air Force Day celebrations
MAR 8TH 2022
More than 60 new planes would be delivered to the Russian air force by the end of the year, boasted Lieutenant General Sergei Dronov, its deputy commander, last summer. These would include Su-30, Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers—as advanced as anything the rest of Europe has to offer. All had been “tested in combat conditions” in Syria, he assured the discerning readers of Krasnaya Zvezda, the official newspaper of Russia’s defence ministry.
Billions of dollars have been poured into Russia’s warplanes over the past decade. Between 2009 and 2020 the air force gained around 440 new fixed-wing aircraft, as well as thousands of drones. At the outset of war, it was widely assumed by defence analysts and officials that Russia would quickly destroy its enemy’s air force and roam freely over the country, using its air superiority to pick off Ukrainian forces at will.
Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.
When hostilities began, Russia sent a volley of cruise and ballistic missiles towards Ukraine’s air bases in an attempt to ground its planes and air-defence systems, and to hobble its radars and anti-aircraft missiles. That effort failed. Ukraine had wisely dispersed its air-defence systems, making them harder to find. American defence officials say that Ukrainian air and missile defences consequently “remain effective and in use”—a claim that can be corroborated with open-source intelligence.
A recent example comes from Kharkiv, which sits 30km from the Russian border. Russian forces failed to take the city with a raid in the first days of the war. Since then, they have surrounded and bombarded it with air, artillery and missile strikes. But Ukraine is not defenceless.
https://www.economist.com/interactive/2022/03/08/curious-case-russias-missing-air-force
