Midterm Analysis: GOP to Win House Based on Democrat Retirements Alone

[mystery-ak]

Midterm Analysis: GOP to Win House Based on Democrat Retirements Alone

Wendell Husebø 22 Feb 2022

House Republicans are scheduled to pick up at least ten House seats due to Democrat retirements alone, according to an analysis by left-leaning Punchbowl News.

Republicans are only in the minority by five seats with 30 total Democrat retirements, the largest mass exodus in three decades.

Some of the districts that will likely fall to Republicans from Democrats’ grasp have not been finalized by state legislatures or courts. However, Punchbowl estimated the following districts will change from blue to red:

    Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-6) — Lean R (R+7)
    Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17) Toss-up (D+4)
    Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) — Map not finalized
    Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) — Map not finalized
    Rep. Ron Kind (WI-3) — Map not finalized
    Rep. Conor Lamb (PA-17) — Map not finalized
    Rep. G.K. Butterfield (NC-1) — Map not finalized
    Rep. Stephanie Murphy (FL-7) — Map not finalized
    Rep. Ed Perlmutter (CO-7) — Toss-up (D+6)
    Rep. Jim Cooper (TN-5) — R+15, solid R

The analysis also includes three house seats that Republicans have a shot at flipping but may be an uphill battle:

    Rep. Jerry McNerney (CA-9) — D+8. Redistricted into a seat with Frontline Rep. Josh Harder.
    Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-4) — D+8
    Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-4) — D+9

The analysis continued, revealing that Republicans are favored to pick up three seats based on state redistricting, along with a member retiring. These include:

    Rep. Filemon Vela (TX-34) —  Solid D (D+17). Redistricted into the same district as Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
    Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-42) — Solid D (D+44). Redistricted into the same district as Lowenthal.
    Rep. Alan Lowenthal (CA-42) — Solid D (D+44). Redistricted into the same district as Roybal-Allard.

The mass Democrat exodus from Congress is likely due to the failings of President Biden’s leadership throughout 2021. During Biden’s presidency, more than two million migrants have been apprehended at the southern border. Inflation has hiked to a 40-year-high. Gas prices have increased $1.00 since last year. Weekly wages have sagged. Fentanyl deaths have become the greatest killer among 18-45-year-olds. Supply chain woes have persisted. And Americans suffered embarrassment from the deadly Afghan withdrawal.

Polling indicates Biden’s woes have contributed to the Democrats’ challenge of maintaining the House majority. Among registered voters, Republicans lead Democrats by 14 points in enthusiasm (79 – 65 percent), according to an Emerson survey. Enthusiasm is a relevant metric because it indicates turnout levels among voters. Turnout greatly impacts closely contested races.

The poll also asked respondents which congressional candidate they would vote for on a generic ballot. Republicans led Democrats by nine points (50 – 41 percent).

Republicans winning back the House would give them an opportunity to impeach Biden, investigate the origins of the coronavirus, fire Dr. Anthony Fauci, and investigate the invasion on the southern border and the deadly collapse of Afghanistan.

https://www.breitbart.com/midterm-election/2022/02/22/midterm-analysis-gop-to-win-house-based-on-democrat-retirements-alone/

[Free Vulcan]

No thanks to the GOP redistricting efforts in most states.

That said, as a former campaign manager, you keep your head down and run like you're 10 points behind right up to the close of the polls.

Any one who shoots their mouth off otherwise gets the end of the boot.

[Killer Clouds]

No thanks to the GOP redistricting efforts in most states.

That said, as a former campaign manager, you keep your head down and run like you're 10 points behind right up to the close of the polls.

Any one who shoots their mouth off otherwise gets the end of the boot.

I've been saying this all along. The retirements mean nothing other than they are going to get there same pay and benefits for the rest of their life and they no longer have to put up with the DC BS.

[Hoodat]

Never underestimate the ability of Republicans to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[Hoodat]

Two districts in Georgia currently held by Dems (6th and 7th) are GOP majority and could be two easy Republican pickups with decent candidates.  But the legislature has decided to cede one over to the Dems to increase the GOP majority in the other, so that they won't ever have to contest either district again.  Georgia's House representation should easily be a 10-4 GOP majority.  But they'll be lucky to get 9-5, thanks to the idiot GOP leaders calling the shots here.

[Kamaji]

Never underestimate the ability of Republicans to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[Longiron]

I've been saying this all along. The retirements mean nothing other than they are going to get there same pay and benefits for the rest of their life and they no longer have to put up with the DC BS.

If the right wing of the UNIPARTY takes the House it will be by a small margin and it will not matter to anyone. THE UNIPARTY will still rule with Gayboy McCarthy and China Mitch leading the way. The people will get it someday, maybe?