Why Putin Won’t Wage a Big War in Ukraine
Putin won’t start a major war if he thinks he has a chance to force Ukrainians to surrender. For that, he needs the Western leaders to help.
By Andrei Illarionov and J. Michael Waller
February 15, 2022
Russia’s months of military movements and Biden’s “strategic communications campaign” are psychological operations intended to intimidate Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the world.
There won’t be a big war any time soon. The Kremlin’s low-cost, high-impact campaign might succeed if some Western leaders, especially in the United States, can help Putin.
Since October 30, American news outlets, fueled by leaks, have warned of an upcoming, full-scale Russian offensive to take Ukraine whole or in pieces.
Last month, Joe Biden threatened devastating retaliation against Russia before making an exception for any “minor incursions” Moscow might make. Biden’s gaffe alarmed Ukrainians far more than anything Putin said or did.
Then the State Department folded, telling American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately and that they’d have to find their own way. The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv sent most of its personnel packing and moved its consulate to temporary exile to Lviv.
Following the U.S. call, nearly 20 other countries pulled out their people. Biden warned NATO allies that a world war could start as early as February 16. The panic caused insurance companies to stop covering commercial aircraft, shutting down air travel to Ukraine by February 14.
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